038
FXUS61 KRNK 072321
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
721 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATE.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO IMPACT VEGETATION WHERE
THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN IN THE PIEDMONT AND ROANOKE
VALLEYS. REPEAT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
2. WEATHER REMAINS DRY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING TREND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO IMPACT VEGETATION
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN IN THE PIEDMONT AND ROANOKE
VALLEYS. REPEAT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COLD DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION PROVIDING
CLEAR SKIES AND AN OPPORTUNITY FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AT NIGHT. THE AIRMASS IS DRY WITH DEWPOINTS FORECAST
IN THE TEENS THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
LITTLE HEAT SUPPORT, MAKING FOR SOME REALLY COOL NIGHTS.
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND ALSO FROM THE ROANOKE AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH
VALLEY EAST TO THE CENTRAL VA PIEDMONT AROUND LYNCHBURG CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT, AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE GROWING
SEASON STARTED FROM ROANOKE AND LEXINGTON EAST, A FREEZE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPS.
FARTHER SOUTH IN THE FOOTHILLS AND SOUTHSIDE VA PIEDMONT LOWS
MAY DROP TO AROUND 32, BUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. GIVEN THE POOR HUMIDITY
RECOVERY TONIGHT (DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS) ALONG WITH SOME
RESIDUAL NORTHEAST WIND, THINKING PATCHY FROST WITH GREATEST
COVERAGE IN THE CREEK BOTTOMS WHERE THERE IS A SOURCE OF
MOISTURE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIGHTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALONG WITH HIGHER RH, SO A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR FROST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THE GROWING SEASON HASN'T STARTED
IN THE MOUNTAINS THOSE THAT HAVE TEMPTED FATE AND PLANTED
SENSITIVE VEGETATION SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS AS WELL.
AS THE OL SAYING GOES, IF YOU AIN'T FROM AROUND HERE ASK THE
LOCALS WHEN TO PLANT. RULE OF THUMB, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS, WAIT UNTIL AFTER MOTHER'S DAY TO PLANT YOUR TOMATOES.
MORE SCIENTIFICALLY, WATCH THE FOLIAGE ON THE TREES. ONCE THE
OAKS HAVE FORMED A CANOPY OF LEAVES, THEN YOU HAVE A GREATER
PROBABILITY OF GOING FROST FREE. TREES KNOW BEST.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRY WITH A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW...SHOULD HAVE TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE
70S AND LOW 80S FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A WEAK FRONT THAT MAY
TEASE THE AREA SATURDAY. MODELS SHOW IT APPROACHING THE AREA
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY, THEN FALLING APART AS IT CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS. ATTM, ONLY ENTERTAINING LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA, ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460 ON
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED AREAWIDE AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD, AND BEYOND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN US FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, KEEPING THE
WEATHER QUIET AND DRY. SKC IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE FROM THE
SOUTH.
NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THEN SOUTHEASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. A SURGE IN WINDS IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT, BEGINNING AS
EARLY AS 02Z, BRINGING GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS TO KLYH AND KDAN
UNTIL ABOUT MID TO LATE MORNING. GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS OR SO ARE
POSSIBLE FOR KBLF AFTER 12Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED
WINDS OTHERWISE REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE OTHER TERMINALS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
COLD MORNING TEMPERATURES, NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING, COULD RESULT
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FROST, ESPECIALLY FOR TERMINALS
NEARER TO SOURCES OF MOISTURE, LIKE RIVERS. NO SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS TO AVIATION, BUT SHARED FOR GENERAL SITUATIONAL
AWARENESS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK,
WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN IS ON
SATURDAY, WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONT. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE
OVER SOUTHEAST WV, THOUGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRYING
WITH NO CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY, AND EVEN
SATURDAY'S CHANCE DOES NOT LOOK MEANINGFUL. THE AIRMASS THAT
IS OVER THE AREA IS VERY DRY. HUMIDITY MINIMUMS WILL LIKELY
TEST 20%, AND IN SOME AREAS DIP INTO THE TEENS DURING THE
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY SOUTH FACING SLOPES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN
SPITE OF THE DIMINISHING WIND, A VARIANCE MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PRESCRIBED FIRE DUE TO THE LOW HUMIDITY FORECAST.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ022>024-
034-035-045>047.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...AS
FIRE WEATHER...PM
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