282
FXUS61 KRNK 081037
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
637 AM EDT WED APR 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
12Z AVIATION UPDATE.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING TO IMPACT VEGETATION
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN IN THE PIEDMONT AND ROANOKE
VALLEYS. SOME POTENTIAL BUT LESS COVERAGE WED NIGHT.
2. WEATHER REMAINS FAIRLY DRY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING
TREND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING IN THE
PIEDMONT. LOWER POTENTIAL WED NIGHT.
HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE FREEZE HEADLINES. VERY DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES, AND RH RUNNING 25 TO 45
PERCENT, SO FROST FORMATION EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY BE HARD TO
COME BY, THOUGH TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH TODAY, AND
SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.
STILL DRY TONIGHT, AND WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS, LOW TEMPERATURES
MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES UNTIL LATER TODAY IF NEEDED SINCE IT SEEM MORE
MARGINAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MAINLY DRY WITH A WARMING TREND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW...SHOULD HAVE TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE
70S AND LOW 80S FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A WEAK FRONT THAT MAY
TEASE THE AREA SATURDAY. MODELS SHOW IT APPROACHING THE AREA
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY, THEN FALLING APART AS IT CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS. ATTM, ONLY ENTERTAINING LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA, ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460 ON
SATURDAY.
EVEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUR RIDGE STILL REMAINS THOUGH A
STRONGER TROUGH ARRIVES TOWARD MIDWEEK AND COULD PUT US MORE IN
A PATTERN FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE FROM
TIME TO TIME.
WINDS TURN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS
TO 15 TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT LYH/BLF AND LWB.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS AROUND LWB/BLF SATURDAY WITH A FRONT,
BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR TO STAY THE MAIN FLIGHT
RULE.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRYING WITH NO CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL AT LEAST
SATURDAY, AND EVEN SATURDAY'S CHANCE DOES NOT LOOK MEANINGFUL.
THE AIRMASS THAT IS OVER THE AREA IS VERY DRY. HUMIDITY MINIMUMS
WILL LIKELY TEST 20%, AND IN SOME AREAS DIP INTO THE TEENS
DURING THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY SOUTH FACING SLOPES. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. IN SPITE OF THE DIMINISHING WIND, A VARIANCE MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PRESCRIBED FIRE DUE TO THE LOW HUMIDITY FORECAST.
RH VALUES SHOULD START RISING BY THE WEEKEND.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ022>024-034-
035-045>047.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM/WP
AVIATION...AS/WP
FIRE WEATHER...PM/WP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page