469
FXUS61 KRNK 081808
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
208 PM EDT WED APR 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BLUE RIDGE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
KEY MESSAGES
1. NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
2. WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS DRY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP FOR NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
A VERY DRY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE TEENS. THE DRY CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKY
(THERE WILL BE SOME CIRRUS AROUND) WILL PROMOTE FAIR TO GOOD
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE 30S...CONDITIONS MARGINAL FOR FROST DUE TO THE LARGE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND HIGH CLOUDS. FOR NOW, WILL TAKE THE
PATH OF LEAST REGRET AND ADVERTISE SOME FROST TO GO ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 30S. WINDS SHOULD
GO CALM LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD, SO
TONIGHT IS THE NIGHT IF WE HAVE A CHANCE AT SEEING SOME FROST.
CREEK BOTTOMS AND UNSHELTERED AREAS WILL HAVE THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR FROST FORMATION. AFTER TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES
TREND UPWARD AND IT WOULD APPEAR NO THREATS FOR FROST OR FREEZE
TO OCCUR FOR THE NEXT 8-14 DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS DRY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP FOR NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PARK ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS THURSDAY-SATURDAY. PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONT SATURDAY MAY
BRING SOME CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AIR COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL
SETTLE BACK ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY-TUESDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY FOR NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING COUPLES
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH TO ADVECT SOME OF THE VERY WARM AIR OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WARMTH IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH OUR TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AGGRAVATING THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND INTRODUCING
CHALLENGES FOR FIRE SUPPRESSION IF THERE ARE ANY NEW FIRE STARTS
(SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF AFD FOR DETAILS).
AFTER TUESDAY ANOTHER FRONT WILL TEASE THE FORECAST AREA, BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR ANY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL. BOTH THE
6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
SUGGEST NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONTINUES ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE, WEDGING DOWN EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
WINDS ARE LIGHT UNDER 10 KNOTS, EXCEPT FOR DAN, WHERE GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 20 KNOTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED DUE TO THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM
THE WEDGE. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY REDUCE INTO THE EVENING AS THE WEDGE
WEAKENS. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY THURSDAY, WITH GUSTS STAYING
UNDER 10 KNOTS FOR ALL TERMINALS AS THE WEDGE LIFTS NORTH. PATCHY
FROST MAY ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING, AS TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. NO RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE FORECAST IS HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL KEEP THE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER
ACROSS OUR AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM FOR BLF/LWB, POSSIBLY BRINGING
BRIEF MVFR CIGS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS DECREASING, WITH ALL
SITES LIKELY REMAINING DRY AND IN VFR FLIGHT STATUS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS OR ANY RAIN MAY NOT BE
UNTIL MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AT EARLIEST.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRYING WITH NO CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL AT LEAST
SATURDAY, AND EVEN SATURDAY'S CHANCE DOES NOT LOOK MEANINGFUL.
THE AIRMASS THAT IS OVER THE AREA IS VERY DRY. HUMIDITY MINIMUMS
WILL LIKELY TEST 20%, AND IN SOME AREAS DIP INTO THE TEENS
DURING THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY SOUTH FACING SLOPES. A VARIANCE
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PRESCRIBED FIRE DUE TO THE LOW HUMIDITY
FORECAST. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW HUMIDITY, ANOTHER LIMITATION TO
CONSIDER THURSDAY WILL BE THE LACK OF TRANSPORT WIND AND POOR
MIXING, RESULTING IN POOR SMOKE DISPERSION. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITH RESPECT TO SMOKE DISPERSION FRIDAY PER
DEEPER MIXING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WESTERLY WINDS.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND, THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN IS VERY LOW.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL
INTRODUCING POTENTIAL FOR FIRES TO "GO-LARGE" DUE TO INCREASED
SPOTTING POTENTIAL AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS. WE WILL LIKELY ENTER
A MULTI-DAY STRETCH WHERE PRESCRIBE FIRE WILL BE DISCOURAGED
IN LIEU OF RESOURCES BEING NEEDED FOR WILDFIRE SUPPRESSION.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ022>024-
032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ003>006-
019-020.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...JCB
FIRE WEATHER...PM
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