124
FXUS61 KRNK 090021
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
821 PM EDT WED APR 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BLUE RIDGE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
MINOR EDITS TO TEMPERATURES FOR AN UPDATED FORECAST ON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL LIKELY TO
GET TO AROUND FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH PATCHY FROST
POSSIBLE DUE TO LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. A FROST ADVISORY IS STILL
IN EFFECT BETWEEN 2AM AND 9AM. SCATTERED UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW BEFORE BEGINNING
TO CLEAR OUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1. NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
2. WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS DRY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP FOR NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
A VERY DRY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE TEENS. THE DRY CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKY
(THERE WILL BE SOME CIRRUS AROUND) WILL PROMOTE FAIR TO GOOD
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE 30S...CONDITIONS MARGINAL FOR FROST DUE TO THE LARGE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND HIGH CLOUDS. FOR NOW, WILL TAKE THE
PATH OF LEAST REGRET AND ADVERTISE SOME FROST TO GO ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 30S. WINDS SHOULD
GO CALM LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD, SO
TONIGHT IS THE NIGHT IF WE HAVE A CHANCE AT SEEING SOME FROST.
CREEK BOTTOMS AND UNSHELTERED AREAS WILL HAVE THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR FROST FORMATION. AFTER TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES
TREND UPWARD AND IT WOULD APPEAR NO THREATS FOR FROST OR FREEZE
TO OCCUR FOR THE NEXT 8-14 DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS DRY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP FOR NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PARK ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS THURSDAY-SATURDAY. PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONT SATURDAY MAY
BRING SOME CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AIR COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL
SETTLE BACK ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY-TUESDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY FOR NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING COUPLES
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH TO ADVECT SOME OF THE VERY WARM AIR OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WARMTH IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH OUR TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AGGRAVATING THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND INTRODUCING
CHALLENGES FOR FIRE SUPPRESSION IF THERE ARE ANY NEW FIRE STARTS
(SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF AFD FOR DETAILS).
AFTER TUESDAY ANOTHER FRONT WILL TEASE THE FORECAST AREA, BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR ANY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL. BOTH THE
6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
SUGGEST NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT TWENTY FOUR HOURS THANKS TO
THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHEAST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE FURTHER AWAY AND WILL CAUSE A CHANGE IN WIND
DIRECTION THAT WILL LIKELY BE MORE EASTERLY OR SOUTHERLY
DEPENDING ON THE TERMINAL. SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY TO STICK AROUND THROUGHOUT TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW
(THURSDAY). OTHERWISE, SOME PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE DUE TO DUE
TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING OVERNIGHT AT KROA, KDAN, KLYH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR STATUS TO LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS
RESIDUAL HIGHER PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS MAY VARY
DEPENDING ON THE BEHAVIOR OF A LOCALIZED SURFACE HIGH, BUT SHOULD
GENERALLY STAY LOWER THAN 12 KTS. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR A CHANGE
IN CONDITIONS MAY BE THIS WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MIGHT
PASS THROUGH AND PROVIDE PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A BIT OF
DISCREPANCY IN MODEL GUIDANCE AS THIS COULD BE A DRY FRONT AND
ONLY RESULT IN BENIGN WIND CHANGE DIRECTION. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE MONITORED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRYING WITH NO CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL AT LEAST
SATURDAY, AND EVEN SATURDAY'S CHANCE DOES NOT LOOK MEANINGFUL.
THE AIRMASS THAT IS OVER THE AREA IS VERY DRY. HUMIDITY MINIMUMS
WILL LIKELY TEST 20%, AND IN SOME AREAS DIP INTO THE TEENS
DURING THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY SOUTH FACING SLOPES. A VARIANCE
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PRESCRIBED FIRE DUE TO THE LOW HUMIDITY
FORECAST. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW HUMIDITY, ANOTHER LIMITATION TO
CONSIDER THURSDAY WILL BE THE LACK OF TRANSPORT WIND AND POOR
MIXING, RESULTING IN POOR SMOKE DISPERSION. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITH RESPECT TO SMOKE DISPERSION FRIDAY PER
DEEPER MIXING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WESTERLY WINDS.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND, THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN IS VERY LOW.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL
INTRODUCING POTENTIAL FOR FIRES TO "GO-LARGE" DUE TO INCREASED
SPOTTING POTENTIAL AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS. WE WILL LIKELY ENTER
A MULTI-DAY STRETCH WHERE PRESCRIBE FIRE WILL BE DISCOURAGED
IN LIEU OF RESOURCES BEING NEEDED FOR WILDFIRE SUPPRESSION.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ022>024-
032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ003>006-
019-020.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CG/PM
AVIATION...CG
FIRE WEATHER...PM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page