579
FXUS61 KRNK 091040
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
640 AM EDT THU APR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
12Z AVIATION UPDATE.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS DRY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP FOR NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS DRY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP FOR NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PARK ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT SATURDAY MAY BRING SOME
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT
OF DRY AIR COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL SETTLE BACK
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY-TUESDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING COUPLES WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH TO ADVECT SOME OF THE VERY WARM AIR OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS INTO OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WARMTH IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH OUR TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AGGRAVATING THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND INTRODUCING
CHALLENGES FOR FIRE SUPPRESSION IF THERE ARE ANY NEW FIRE STARTS
(SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF AFD FOR DETAILS). THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID TO LATE JUNE, THOUGH THE
HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE AS BAD.
AFTER TUESDAY ANOTHER FRONT WILL TEASE THE FORECAST AREA, BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR ANY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL. BOTH THE
6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
SUGGEST NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT TWENTY FOUR HOURS THANKS TO
THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHEAST.
WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT AND MAINLY OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR STATUS TO LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN WITH
THE FRONT SATURDAY, CHANCES OF SUB-VFR ARE LOW.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRYING WITH NO CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL AT LEAST
SATURDAY, AND EVEN SATURDAY'S CHANCE DOES NOT LOOK MEANINGFUL.
THE AIRMASS THAT IS OVER THE AREA IS VERY DRY. HUMIDITY MINIMUMS
WILL LIKELY TEST 20%, AND IN SOME AREAS DIP INTO THE TEENS
DURING THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY SOUTH FACING SLOPES. A VARIANCE
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PRESCRIBED FIRE DUE TO THE LOW HUMIDITY
FORECAST. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW HUMIDITY, ANOTHER LIMITATION TO
CONSIDER THURSDAY WILL BE THE LACK OF TRANSPORT WIND AND POOR
MIXING, RESULTING IN POOR SMOKE DISPERSION. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITH RESPECT TO SMOKE DISPERSION FRIDAY PER
DEEPER MIXING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WESTERLY WINDS.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND, THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN IS VERY LOW.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL
INTRODUCING POTENTIAL FOR FIRES TO "GO-LARGE" DUE TO INCREASED
SPOTTING POTENTIAL AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS. WE WILL LIKELY ENTER
A MULTI-DAY STRETCH WHERE PRESCRIBE FIRE WILL BE DISCOURAGED
IN LIEU OF RESOURCES BEING NEEDED FOR WILDFIRE SUPPRESSION.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ022>024-
032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ003>006-019-
020.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CG/PM/WP
AVIATION...CG/WP
FIRE WEATHER...PM
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