683
FXUS61 KRNK 110018
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
818 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
00Z AVIATION UPDATE
QUIET WEATHER SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A DRY WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
CULMINATING IN SUMMER-LIKE HEAT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A DRY WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND CULMINATING IN SUMMER-LIKE HEAT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE IS DOMINATING OUR WEATHER PATTERN CURRENTLY,
THOUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY MAY GENERATE SOME SCATTERED
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTHERN NC.
FOR NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS, AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL ADVECT AN EVEN WARMER
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL, FEELING MORE LIKE
MID-TO- LATE JUNE. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE 1 TO 2
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ABOVE NORMAL. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW COMPARED TO TYPICAL SUMMER MUGGINESS, SO
THIS WILL RESTRICT HEAT INDICES FROM SKYROCKETING.
EXPECT WORSENING DROUGHT AND FIRE RISK. THE PROLONGED HEAT AND
LACK OF RAIN WILL WORSEN ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THIS ALSO
CREATES AN ENVIRONMENT MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR FIRE SUPPRESSION;
ANY NEW FIRES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) CONFIRMS THIS DRY, WARM
PATTERN IS LIKELY TO STICK AROUND. BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY
FORECASTS PREDICT A HIGH PROBABILITY OF ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION. WHILE A FEW WEAK
FRONTS MAY SKIM THE FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEK, THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ANY SIGNIFICANT RELIEF.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT. THIS WEAK FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION OR RESTRICTIONS, BUT SOME LOWER CIGS FROM CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY ONLY LOWER TO AROUND THE 5-8 KFT LEVELS AT THE
LOWEST. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RETURN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. THE BIGGEST IMPACT TO
TERMINALS, WILL BE THE WIND SHIFT CHANGE FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY/NORTHERLY BETWEEN 10-15 UTC SATURDAY. OVERALL,
THESE WINDS GENERALLY LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 5-10 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN WITH THE
FRONT SATURDAY, CHANCES OF SUB-VFR ARE LOW.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
THOUGH A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMING AND DRYING
WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN. WEAK FRONTS MAY TEASE THE AREA AGAIN
NEXT WEEK, BUT OVERALL CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK MINIMAL FOR THE
NEXT 8-14 DAYS. IN GENERAL EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY MINIMUMS RANGING FROM 25-35%. SOME OF THE
SOUTH FACING SLOPES MAY TEST 20%.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF LARGE, HARD TO CONTROL WILDFIRES,
HEIGHTENED BY SUMMER-LIKE HEAT AND LOW HUMIDITY. FURTHERMORE,
THE HEAT WILL CREATE AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE, LEADING TO GUSTY
AFTERNOON WINDS THAT CAN CAUSE ANY NEW FIRE STARTS TO SPREAD
RAPIDLY.
ALL THINGS CONSIDERED, AFTER THIS WEEKEND, WE WILL LIKELY ENTER
A MULTI-DAY STRETCH WHERE PRESCRIBE FIRE WILL BE DISCOURAGED IN
LIEU OF RESOURCES BEING NEEDED FOR WILDFIRE SUPPRESSION.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...VFJ/WP
AVIATION...EB/VFJ
FIRE WEATHER...PM/WP
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