976
FXUS61 KRNK 111043
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
643 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
12Z AVIATION UPDATE
FORECAST REMAINS QUIET, WITH POTENTIAL RECORD BREAKING HEAT NEXT
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1. STRONG RIDGE MAY BRING RECORD BREAKING HEAT BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RIDGE TO BRING POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HEAT BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH TODAY WITH SOME CLOUDS, MAYBE A FEW
SHOWERS TO SOUTHEAST WV AND SOUTHSIDE VA/NC PIEDMONT BUT
NOTHING MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT.
WE SEE A WARMING TREND NEXT AS HIGH PRESSURE STAYS SET UP OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE COAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW BRING
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WE COULD SEE RECORD HIGHS BY
TUESDAY. WE MAY START TO SEE SOME OROGRAPHIC CONVECTION CREEPING
INTO THE MOUNTAINS AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH A FRONT APPROACHING, BUT
PROBABILITY OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL STAYS LOW THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT WORSENING DROUGHT AND FIRE RISK. THE PROLONGED HEAT AND
LACK OF RAIN WILL WORSEN ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THIS ALSO
CREATES AN ENVIRONMENT MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR FIRE SUPPRESSION;
ANY NEW FIRES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FLIGHT RULES SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME
LOW END VFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT CLOSE TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND
IMPACTING ROA AND POSSIBLY BCB TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY. WIND SHOULD BE
MAINLY NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10KTS TURNING EAST TO SOUTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT BUT UNDER 5KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SOME INCREASE IN
DEWPOINTS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY RIVER FOG NEAR LWB/BCB IN THE
MORNING WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK, THOUGH
A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS TODAY WITH A WIND SHIFT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMING AND DRYING WITH LITTLE
OR NO RAIN. WEAK FRONTS MAY TEASE THE AREA AGAIN NEXT WEEK, BUT
OVERALL CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK MINIMAL FOR THE NEXT 8-14 DAYS. IN
GENERAL EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
MINIMUMS RANGING FROM 25-35%. SOME OF THE SOUTH FACING SLOPES
MAY TEST 20%.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF LARGE, HARD TO CONTROL WILDFIRES,
HEIGHTENED BY SUMMER-LIKE HEAT AND LOW HUMIDITY. FURTHERMORE,
THE HEAT WILL CREATE AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE, LEADING TO GUSTY
AFTERNOON WINDS THAT CAN CAUSE ANY NEW FIRE STARTS TO SPREAD
RAPIDLY.
ALL THINGS CONSIDERED, AFTER THIS WEEKEND, WE WILL LIKELY ENTER
A MULTI-DAY STRETCH WHERE PRESCRIBE FIRE WILL BE DISCOURAGED IN
LIEU OF RESOURCES BEING NEEDED FOR WILDFIRE SUPPRESSION.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...VFJ/WP
AVIATION...EB/VFJ/WP
FIRE WEATHER...PM/WP
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