180
FXUS61 KRNK 111742
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
142 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
18Z AVIATION UPDATE
FORECAST REMAINS QUIET, WITH POTENTIAL RECORD BREAKING HEAT NEXT
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1. STRONG RIDGE MAY BRING RECORD BREAKING HEAT BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BRING POTENTIAL FOR RECORD
HEAT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A DRY FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SEEING A
FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT, ALONG WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS.
WE SEE A WARMING TREND NEXT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST, RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. COULD BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS BY TUESDAY. MAY BEGIN TO
SEE SOME OROGRAPHIC CONVECTION CREEPING INTO THE MOUNTAINS
AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH A FRONT APPROACHING, BUT PROBABILITY OF ANY
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL STAYS LOW THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT WORSENING DROUGHT AND FIRE RISK. THE PROLONGED HEAT AND
LACK OF RAIN WILL WORSEN ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THIS ALSO
CREATES AN ENVIRONMENT MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR FIRE SUPPRESSION;
ANY NEW FIRES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FLIGHT RULES SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME
LOW END VFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT CLOSE TO THE BLUE RIDGE, MAINLY IMPACTING
ROA AND POSSIBLY BCB TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY. WIND SHOULD BE MAINLY
NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10KTS TURNING EAST TO SOUTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT BUT UNDER 5KTS. CLOUDS LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BY LATE
SUNDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SOME INCREASE IN
DEWPOINTS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY RIVER FOG NEAR LWB/BCB BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK, THOUGH
A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS TODAY WITH A WIND SHIFT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMING AND DRYING WITH LITTLE
OR NO RAIN. WEAK FRONTS MAY TEASE THE AREA AGAIN NEXT WEEK, BUT
OVERALL CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK MINIMAL FOR THE NEXT 8-14 DAYS. IN
GENERAL EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
MINIMUMS RANGING FROM 25-35%. SOME OF THE SOUTH FACING SLOPES
MAY TEST 20%.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF LARGE, HARD TO CONTROL WILDFIRES,
HEIGHTENED BY SUMMER-LIKE HEAT AND LOW HUMIDITY. FURTHERMORE,
THE HEAT WILL CREATE AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE, LEADING TO GUSTY
AFTERNOON WINDS THAT CAN CAUSE ANY NEW FIRE STARTS TO SPREAD
RAPIDLY.
ALL THINGS CONSIDERED, AFTER THIS WEEKEND, WE WILL LIKELY ENTER
A MULTI-DAY STRETCH WHERE PRESCRIBED FIRE WILL BE DISCOURAGED
IN LIEU OF RESOURCES BEING NEEDED FOR WILDFIRE SUPPRESSION.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG
AVIATION...BMG
FIRE WEATHER...BMG/WP
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