052
FXUS61 KRNK 120007
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
807 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR EDITS TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT TEMPERATURE
OBSERVATIONS. ONLY MAIN CHANGE IS THE INTRODUCTION OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT DUE
TO EASTERLY WINDS. SCATTERED CLOUD COVER SUNDAY MAY BRING
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER THAN THIS (SATURDAY) AFTERNOON.
SEE 00Z AVIATION UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. STRONG RIDGE MAY BRING RECORD BREAKING HEAT BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BRING POTENTIAL FOR RECORD
HEAT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A DRY FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SEEING A
FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT, ALONG WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS.
WE SEE A WARMING TREND NEXT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST, RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. COULD BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS BY TUESDAY. MAY BEGIN TO
SEE SOME OROGRAPHIC CONVECTION CREEPING INTO THE MOUNTAINS
AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH A FRONT APPROACHING, BUT PROBABILITY OF ANY
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL STAYS LOW THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT WORSENING DROUGHT AND FIRE RISK. THE PROLONGED HEAT AND
LACK OF RAIN WILL WORSEN ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THIS ALSO
CREATES AN ENVIRONMENT MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR FIRE SUPPRESSION;
ANY NEW FIRES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR SKIES ARE STILL PREDICTED TO BE THE MAIN HEADLINE FOR ALL
TERMINALS BUT THERE IS A SMALL CAVEAT. LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE EAST
MAY BRING IN SOME CLOUDS OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. THE CEILINGS OF THESE CLOUDS MAY GET BELOW 3000 FT,
BUT MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW THESE CEILINGS AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS (BUT PRETTY DARN CLOSE). WHILE NOT IN THE TAFS, IT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF CLOUD CEILINGS JUST UNDER 3000FT
AFFECT THE TERMINALS OF KDAN, KROA, KBCB, OR KLYH FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO. EVEN SO, THESE CLOUDS MAY ALSO HIDE SOME OF THE RIDGETOPS
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY
HIGH GIVEN THE SCATTERED/BROKEN CLOUD COVER DISTRIBUTION BUT THE
CHANCE OF MVFR SKIES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IS NOT ZERO.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST
BY SUNDAY EVENING AND WINDS WILL SHIFT IN DIRECTION AND PICK UP A
LITTLE. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ALONG MOUNTAIN TOPS WITH GUSTS OF 25-
30 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL DIE OUT BY TUESDAY AND HIGHER SURFACE
PRESSURE ORIGINATING TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOW FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK, THOUGH
A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS TODAY WITH A WIND SHIFT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMING AND DRYING WITH LITTLE
OR NO RAIN. WEAK FRONTS MAY TEASE THE AREA AGAIN NEXT WEEK, BUT
OVERALL CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK MINIMAL FOR THE NEXT 8-14 DAYS. IN
GENERAL EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
MINIMUMS RANGING FROM 25-35%. SOME OF THE SOUTH FACING SLOPES
MAY TEST 20%.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF LARGE, HARD TO CONTROL WILDFIRES,
HEIGHTENED BY SUMMER-LIKE HEAT AND LOW HUMIDITY. FURTHERMORE,
THE HEAT WILL CREATE AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE, LEADING TO GUSTY
AFTERNOON WINDS THAT CAN CAUSE ANY NEW FIRE STARTS TO SPREAD
RAPIDLY.
ALL THINGS CONSIDERED, AFTER THIS WEEKEND, WE WILL LIKELY ENTER
A MULTI-DAY STRETCH WHERE PRESCRIBED FIRE WILL BE DISCOURAGED
IN LIEU OF RESOURCES BEING NEEDED FOR WILDFIRE SUPPRESSION.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG/CG
AVIATION...CG
FIRE WEATHER...BMG/WP
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