068
FXUS61 KRNK 120529
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
129 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE NUDGED A LITTLE
UPWARD, WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WERE BUMPED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY. LITTLE IF ANY
RELIEF IS EXPECTED FROM THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY.
LITTLE IF ANY RELIEF IS EXPECTED FROM THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
AN UNUSUAL PATTERN IS TAKING SHAPE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THIS
WEEK WITH A STRONG 590 DAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFFSHORE TOWARDS BERMUDA, THE
RESULTING SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE EAST COAST WILL ADVECT
WARMER AIR NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. THIS WARMING TREND SHOULD
PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY COULD REACH
THE 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LOWER 90S IN THE PIEDMONT,
WHICH WOULD BE RECORD TERRITORY. DUE TO THE DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE, DEWPOINTS WERE TWEAKED DOWNWARD. AS A RESULT, THE DIURNAL
RANGE BETWEEN HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WAS WIDENED AS WE ARE
STILL AWAITING THE LEAVES TO COME OUT ON THE TREES TO PROVIDE
MORE MOISTURE THROUGH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION.
THE MAIN STORM TRACK APPEARS TO RESIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK. THE ONLY
CHANCES OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CONFINED TO
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW ON THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
PROVIDING ANY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO HALT THE WORSENING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS. FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DUE TO
THE ANOMALOUS HEAT AND DRYNESS. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL SOMETIME
DURING THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND FOR THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
WEAKEN AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS TO MOVE EASTWARD
AND BRING ANY POSSIBLE RELIEF.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR SKIES ARE STILL PREDICTED TO BE THE MAIN HEADLINE FOR ALL
TERMINALS BUT THERE IS A SMALL CAVEAT. LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM
THE EAST HAVE BROUGHT IN SOME CLOUDS AND BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR
CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING, MAINLY AFFECTING LYH AND PERHAPS
BRIEFLY ROA, BCB, AND DAN.
LIGHT EAST WINDS THIS MORNING VEER TO THE ESE TO S TODAY WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS OR SO. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AGAIN TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW AND PICK
UP A LITTLE. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ALONG MOUNTAIN TOPS WITH
GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL DIE OUT BY TUESDAY AND
HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE ORIGINATING TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOW AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
UNUSUALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE WITH RECORD
HEAT POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. RAINFALL APPEARS
MINIMAL AS ANY CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. OTHERWISE, DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL
TOWARDS 25 TO 35 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE SOUTHERN
FACING SLOPES MAY HAVE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO
20 PERCENT WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND GUSTY WINDS DUE TO AN
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE INCREASING HEAT.
THESE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS WILL ESCALATE FIRE DANGER
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE ANOMALOUS HEAT AND LOW HUMIDITY
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME GUSTS COULD POSSIBLY SPARK NEW FIRE
ACTIVITY THAT MAY SPREAD RAPIDLY. AFTER TODAY, WE APPEAR TO
ENTER A CONSIDERABLE STRETCH OF TIME WHERE PRESCRIBED FIRE WILL
BE DISCOURAGED AS ANY AVAILABLE RESOURCES MAY NEED TO SHIFT
TOWARDS WILDFIRE SUPPRESSION.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PW
AVIATION...SH
FIRE WEATHER...PW
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