086
FXUS61 KRNK 130425
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1225 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY. LITTLE IF ANY
RELIEF IS EXPECTED FROM THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY.
LITTLE IF ANY RELIEF IS EXPECTED FROM THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
AN UNUSUAL PATTERN IS TAKING SHAPE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THIS
WEEK WITH A STRONG 590 DAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFFSHORE TOWARDS BERMUDA, THE
RESULTING SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE EAST COAST WILL ADVECT
WARMER AIR NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. THIS WARMING TREND SHOULD
PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY COULD REACH
THE 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LOWER 90S IN THE PIEDMONT,
WHICH WOULD BE RECORD TERRITORY. DUE TO THE DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE, DEWPOINTS WERE TWEAKED DOWNWARD. AS A RESULT, THE DIURNAL
RANGE BETWEEN HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WAS WIDENED AS WE ARE
STILL AWAITING THE LEAVES TO COME OUT ON THE TREES TO PROVIDE
MORE MOISTURE THROUGH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION.
THE MAIN STORM TRACK APPEARS TO RESIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK. THE ONLY
CHANCES OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CONFINED TO
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW ON THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
PROVIDING ANY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO HALT THE WORSENING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS. FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DUE TO
THE ANOMALOUS HEAT AND DRYNESS. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL SOMETIME
DURING THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND FOR THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
WEAKEN AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS TO MOVE EASTWARD
AND BRING ANY POSSIBLE RELIEF.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST TODAY DESPITE A BROKEN LAYER OF
CLOUDS ARRIVING THIS MORNING. A LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD INCREASE
UP TO 35 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT, SO LLWS HAS BEEN INSERTED AT ALL TAF
SITES. THE LLWS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE. GUSTS UP TO 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY MIDDAY AND INTO THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THEY SHOULD FADE TOWARDS SUNSET. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EXISTS AT BLF AND LWB DURING THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING TO THE NORTH, BUT LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT
TO AVIATION IS ANTICIPATED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
IT WILL STAY MAINLY WARM AND DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT
THE REST OF THIS WORKWEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST, AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND MIXES. THE ONLY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS THAT COULD TEMPORARILY HALT THE ONGOING DRY SPELL
OCCUR DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ALSO BY THURSDAY NIGHT NEAR
BLF AND LWB FROM FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PASSING TO THE NORTH, BUT
CONFIDENCE OF ANY IMPACTS REMAIN LOW.
FIRE WEATHER
UNUSUALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE WITH RECORD
HEAT POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. RAINFALL APPEARS
MINIMAL AS ANY CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. OTHERWISE, DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL
TOWARDS 20 TO 35 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE SOUTHERN
FACING SLOPES MAY HAVE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO
15 TO 20 PERCENT WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND GUSTY WINDS DUE TO
AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE INCREASING HEAT.
THESE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS WILL ESCALATE FIRE DANGER
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE ANOMALOUS HEAT AND LOW HUMIDITY
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME GUSTS COULD POSSIBLY SPARK NEW FIRE
ACTIVITY THAT MAY SPREAD RAPIDLY. AFTER TODAY, WE APPEAR TO
ENTER A CONSIDERABLE STRETCH OF TIME WHERE PRESCRIBED FIRE WILL
BE DISCOURAGED AS ANY AVAILABLE RESOURCES MAY NEED TO SHIFT
TOWARDS WILDFIRE SUPPRESSION.
MONDAY WILL BE OF PARTICULAR CONCERN GIVEN INCREASINGLY GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AS HIGH AS 25KTS, RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 20
PERCENT RANGE AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASING CONCERN
ON MONDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG/PW
AVIATION...PW
FIRE WEATHER...BMG/PW
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