154
FXUS61 KRNK 130622
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
222 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MULTIPLE DAYS OF RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY. LITTLE IF ANY
RELIEF IS EXPECTED FROM THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH RECORD HEAT EXPECTED. LITTLE IF ANY
RELIEF IS EXPECTED FROM THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. PERIODICALLY THE RIDGE WILL
BE SUPPRESSED SLIGHTLY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRAVELS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY, ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK SURFACE FRONTS AT THE
SURFACE.
THIS WON'T DO MUCH TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM INCREASING TO A
GOOD 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEK IN PERSISTENT WSW
FLOW. THIS HEAT WILL BE WELL OUT OF NORMAL BOUNDS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR, WITH THE ECMWF EFI, SHIFT-OF-TAILS AND THE NAEFS
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE INDICATING THIS IS AN UNUSUAL AND
MOST LIKELY RECORD BREAKING WEATHER EVENT. MANY RECORDS WILL
LIKELY BE CHALLENGED OR BROKEN THIS WEEK IN THE MID ATLANTIC,
SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFO.
PERIODIC CLOUD COVER AND THE OCCASIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
LOOK POSSIBLE MOST AFTERNOONS IN THE MOUNTAINS, ALTHOUGH
AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN, AND WILL
DO NOTHING TO IMPROVE DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN THE REGION. A
BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN MAY COME NEXT SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
FOR TODAY, WE ARE OUTLOOKED BY SPC FOR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
TODAY, AND A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SW VA.
PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE INFO.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST TODAY DESPITE A BROKEN LAYER OF
CLOUDS ARRIVING THIS MORNING. A LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD INCREASE
UP TO 35 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT, SO LLWS HAS BEEN INSERTED AT ALL TAF
SITES. THE LLWS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE. GUSTS UP TO 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY MIDDAY AND INTO THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THEY SHOULD FADE TOWARDS SUNSET. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EXISTS AT BLF AND LWB DURING THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING TO THE NORTH, BUT LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT
TO AVIATION IS ANTICIPATED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
IT WILL STAY MAINLY WARM AND DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT
THE REST OF THIS WORKWEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST, AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND MIXES. THE ONLY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS THAT COULD TEMPORARILY HALT THE ONGOING DRY SPELL OCCUR
DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ALSO BY THURSDAY NIGHT NEAR BLF AND
LWB FROM FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PASSING TO THE NORTH, BUT
CONFIDENCE OF ANY IMPACTS REMAIN LOW.
FIRE WEATHER
UNUSUALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE WITH RECORD
HEAT POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. RAINFALL APPEARS
MINIMAL AS ANY CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. OTHERWISE, DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL
TOWARDS 20 TO 35 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE SOUTHERN
FACING SLOPES MAY HAVE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO
15 TO 20 PERCENT WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND GUSTY WINDS DUE TO
AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE INCREASING HEAT.
THESE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS AND THE INCREASING WARMTH WILL
ESCALATE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE ANOMALOUS
HEAT AND LOW HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH DAYTIME GUSTS COULD POSSIBLY
SPARK NEW FIRE ACTIVITY THAT MAY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
TODAY WILL BE OF PARTICULAR CONCERN GIVEN INCREASINGLY GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AS HIGH AS 25 MPH, RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE
25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SW VA.
CLIMATE
TUESDAY
STATION HI MAX TLO MAX THI MIN TLO MIN TPCPN
ROANOKE91 IN 194542 IN 195067 IN 192226 IN 19502.21 IN 1980
LYNCHBURG91 IN 194142 IN 194363 IN 201426 IN 19731.40 IN 1984
DANVILLE91 IN 194545 IN 200075 IN 192230 IN 19752.60 IN 1955
BLUEFIELD83 IN 193031 IN 195064 IN 197720 IN 19501.94 IN 1955
BLACKSBURG82 IN 194138 IN 194360 IN 194118 IN 19731.52 IN 1980
WEDNESDAY
STATIONHI MAX TLO MAX THI MIN TLO MIN TPCPN
ROANOKE89 IN 193645 IN 194367 IN 202425 IN 19503.50 IN 1987
LYNCHBURG89 IN 194145 IN 194365 IN 189628 IN 19502.53 IN 1987
DANVILLE91 IN 200648 IN 194368 IN 192227 IN 19432.01 IN 2007
BLUEFIELD89 IN 192232 IN 194360 IN 200621 IN 19571.88 IN 2018
BLACKSBURG83 IN 194138 IN 196257 IN 195419 IN 19501.83 IN 2018
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PW/SH
AVIATION...PW
FIRE WEATHER...SH
CLIMATE...SH
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