526
FXUS61 KRNK 131753
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
153 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED.
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MULTIPLE DAYS OF RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.
A FRONT COULD BRING COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT NO
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY. LITTLE IF ANY
RELIEF IS EXPECTED FROM THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
2. A POTENTIAL COOL DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE COMING WEEK AND
RECORD BREAKING HEAT IS LIKELY AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY. LITTLE,
IF ANY RELIEF IS EXPECTED FROM THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THIS
WEEK IN PERSISTENT WSW FLOW. THIS HEAT WILL BE WELL OUT OF
NORMAL BOUNDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH THE ECMWF EFI, SHIFT-
OF- TAILS AND THE NAEFS SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE INDICATING
THIS IS AN UNUSUAL AND MOST LIKELY RECORD BREAKING HEAT WAVE FOR
EARLY APRIL. MANY RECORDS WILL LIKELY BE CHALLENGED OR BROKEN
THIS WEEK IN THE MID ATLANTIC, SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE INFO.
PERIODIC CLOUD COVER AND A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE MOST AFTERNOONS IN THE MOUNTAINS. ANY RAINFALL WILL
REMAIN VERY LIGHT IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN, AND WILL DO NOTHING
TO IMPROVE DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN THE REGION.
FOR TODAY, WE ARE OUTLOOKED BY SPC FOR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS,
AND A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF VIRGINIA
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA. ADDITIONAL FIRE DANGER
STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE WEEK. PLEASE SEE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE INFO.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A POTENTIAL COOL DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW HINTS OF A COOL DOWN BY LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION. IF THIS OCCURS, THIS WILL BRING AN END TO
THE RECORD BREAKING HEAT THAT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THIS WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO APRIL NORMALS. HOWEVER,
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL STILL DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PERSISTENT SCT TO BKN CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT GENERALLY
CLOUD LAYER AT 5KFT OR HIGHER. OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES POSSIBLE,
BUT NOT EVEN ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS. VFR SHOULD BE THE
PREDOMINANT CATEGORY THROUGH TUESDAY.
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THEY SHOULD FADE TOWARDS SUNSET. WINDS LIGHT TO
CALM OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, AND GUSTS UP TO
20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS
AND MIXES. THE ONLY CHANCES OF SHOWERS THAT COULD TEMPORARILY
HALT THE ONGOING DRY SPELL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOONS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. THESE WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AND WILL FADE WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
FIRE WEATHER
UNUSUALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE WITH RECORD
HEAT POSSIBLE BEGINNING BY MIDWEEK. RAINFALL APPEARS
MINIMAL AS ANY CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. OTHERWISE, DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL
TOWARDS 20 TO 35 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE SOUTHERN
FACING SLOPES MAY HAVE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO
15 TO 20 PERCENT WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND GUSTY WINDS DUE TO
AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE INCREASING HEAT.
THESE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS AND THE INCREASING WARMTH WILL
ESCALATE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE ANOMALOUS
HEAT AND LOW HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH DAYTIME GUSTS WILL ONLY MAKE
FIRE CONTAINMENT INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
WINDS TODAY REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE EVENING
AND COUPLED WITH VERY DRY FUELS, FIRES COULD BE DIFFICULT TO
SUPPRESS. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF
VIRGINIA AND PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA. AN ADDITIONAL FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY.
CLIMATE
TUESDAY
STATION HI MAX TLO MAX THI MIN TLO MIN T
ROANOKE91 IN 194542 IN 195067 IN 192226 IN 1950
LYNCHBURG91 IN 194142 IN 194363 IN 201426 IN 1973
DANVILLE91 IN 194545 IN 200075 IN 192230 IN 1975
BLUEFIELD83 IN 193031 IN 195064 IN 197720 IN 1950
BLACKSBURG82 IN 194138 IN 194360 IN 194118 IN 1973
WEDNESDAY
STATIONHI MAX TLO MAX THI MIN TLO MIN T
ROANOKE89 IN 193645 IN 194367 IN 202425 IN 1950
LYNCHBURG89 IN 194145 IN 194365 IN 189628 IN 1950
DANVILLE91 IN 200648 IN 194368 IN 192227 IN 1943
BLUEFIELD89 IN 192232 IN 194360 IN 200621 IN 1957
BLACKSBURG83 IN 194138 IN 196257 IN 195419 IN 1950
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG/PW
AVIATION...BMG
FIRE WEATHER...BMG/SH
CLIMATE...SH
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