324
FXUS61 KRNK 300012
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
812 PM EDT WED APR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. WIND
GUSTS FOR THURSDAY WERE INCREASED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH IN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES TO BRING GUSTY WINDS ON THURSDAY.
2) ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN EXISTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. COLDER AIR SHOULD
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST/FREEZE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH IN THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES TO BRING GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ON THURSDAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE IN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THE
WIND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD SWING TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
THESE GUSTS WERE INCREASED IN THIS FORECAST UPDATE BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL TRENDS. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE WEAK THIS
EVENING DUE TO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER, WHICH HAS CAUSED THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO NOT MATERIALIZE SO FAR. WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING, THIS THREAT SHOULD VANISH BY 10 PM EDT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE DECENT WITH SOME LOCATIONS REACHING 0.50
TO 0.75 INCHES, BUT THE OVERALL COVERAGE WAS RATHER SPOTTY AND
NOT SUFFICIENT TO PUT A HUGE DENT IN THE ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WHERE DEFICITS STILL SIT ABOUT 3 TO 4 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL SINCE MARCH 2026 AND A STAGGERING 6 TO 12 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL SINCE SEPTEMBER 2025.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN EXISTS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
COLDER AIR SHOULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST/FREEZE BY SUNDAY
MORNING.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS BY
THE END OF THIS WEEK, WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR
RAIN TO THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES, WHICH WILL ACCOMPLISH TWO MAIN
THINGS FOR THE LOCAL AREA. ONE, IT WILL SERVE TO LIMIT THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION COMING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING TO MAINLY SOUTH OF THE VA/NC STATE LINE.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. TWO, IT WILL ALSO ALLOW
COLDER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXPAND EAST BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY AND COVER MOST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY SUNDAY. WITH SOME MOISTURE IN THE
REGION AND SUBSIDENCE KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND SKIES CLEARER,
THERE IS INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT BY SUNDAY
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL NEAR FREEZING IN THE
MOUNTAINS. WITH WIDESPREAD GREEN-UP STILL UNDERWAY AFTER RECENT
WARMTH AND RAINFALL, FOLKS WITH AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CONVECTION SHOULD WANE IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THE FLOW SHOULD SWING AROUND
TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, CEILINGS SHOULD FALL TO MVFR WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS DUE TO
RECENT RAINFALL. FOG WILL OVERALL REMAIN PATCHY AS THERE MAY BE
SOME BREEZE AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT, BUT THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR FOG EXISTS AT BCB, BLF, AND LWB. BY THURSDAY,
CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR, BUT THE WIND SHOULD INCREASE
WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, A
PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH SHOULD PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS DURING LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
RAIN COVERAGE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AT MOST.
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY BY LATE SATURDAY, BUT HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE LIGHTER WINDS, COOLER AIR, AND VFR
CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE FLOW SHOULD TURN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME BREEZY ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH TO BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AS/PW
AVIATION...PW
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