583
FXUS61 KRNK 301101
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
701 AM EDT THU APR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FROST ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA AND THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON SATURDAY HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY LOWER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) POCKETS OF FROST POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
2) ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN EXISTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. COLDER AIR SHOULD
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE BY
SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: POCKETS OF FROST POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER THE REGION. CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL FAVOR FROST ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. RADIATIONAL
COOLING COULD RESULT IN SHELTERED VALLEYS FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 20S, BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO LOWER 30S FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY. WILL
ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN EXISTS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. COLDER
AIR SHOULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST BY LATE
FRIDAY AND TRACK THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING LIGHT RAINFALL TO THE REGION, BUT TRENDS IN RECENT
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE CONFINED TO ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE VA/NC, WITH LOWEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE VIRGINIA
HIGHLANDS AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25",
TAPERING TO 0.10" OR LESS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
BLUEFIELD/ROANOKE/LYNCHBURG. REGARDLESS OF RAIN, CLOUD COVER AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL ALL DAY.
AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE ATLANTIC, A COOLER AIRMASS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL SETUP A POTENTIAL FOR
FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE, ALONG
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALMING WINDS INCREASES CONFIDENCE OF A
MORE WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL FOR FROST/FREEZE. THOSE WITH
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND PREPARE ACCORDINGLY TO PROTECT
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A MIXED BAG OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE AREA, THOUGH
MOST AREAS REMAIN IN VFR. LIGHTER WINDS AT DAN/LYH HAS ALLOWED
SOME VERY PATCHY FOG TO FORM, WHICH WILL CAUSE VSBY TO BOUNCE
AROUND THROUGH AROUND 13Z, AND LIKELY SUB-VFR. BCB/ROA WILL
ALSO HAVE CIGS LOWER, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR, THOUGH
A BRIEF DIP TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE BEFORE DAYBREAK.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE MORNING AT ALL
TERMINALS, AND WILL BE QUITE STRONG. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
WILL LAST THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS. CIGS LIFT
THIS MORNING WITH ALL SITES RETURNING TO VFR, WHICH CONTINUES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING, WITH QUIET WEATHER INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE QUIET WEATHER AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. WINDS ALSO DECREASE, BECOMING LIGHT
OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO PATCHY FOG, ESPECIALLY AT LWB. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AS A TROUGH TO OUR NORTH AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH MOVE BY. RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD, OUTSIDE OF DAN, WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE MOSTLY
SUB-VFR DURING THIS TIME. OTHER TERMINALS WILL SEE POTENTIAL DROPS
TO SUB-VFR WHEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. THIS SETUP WILL
ALSO CAUSE WINDS TO GUST TO AROUND 15 KNOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS EACH
DAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY, WITH LIKELY VFR CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER, THOUGH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MAY IMPACT BLF/LWB
AT TIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
VAZ019-020.
NC...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
WVZ043-044-507-508.
DISCUSSION...BMG
AVIATION...PW
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