477
FXUS61 KRNK 302320
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
720 PM EDT THU APR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. FROST
ADVISORIES ARE STILL IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA AND THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS FRIDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DEEP SOUTH STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME RAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. COLD AIR MOVES IN
AND MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST SUNDAY MORNING.
2) NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA IS THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DEEP SOUTH STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME RAIN FOR
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. COLD AIR MOVES IN
AND MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST SUNDAY MORNING.
A LARGE MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW CENTERED OVER CANADA IS LIKELY TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, ROTATING SHORTWAVES AROUND IT.
ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL SWING AROUND FROM THE CANADIAN GREAT
PLAINS AND NUDGE NORTHWARD AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TRAVELING
FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA. WHILE THE DEEP SOUTH WILL RECEIVE THE BULK
OF THE RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM, IT MAY BE JUST NORTH ENOUGH TO
PROVIDE PRECIPITATION FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-460.
RAINFALL TOTALS, HOWEVER, ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH A QUARTER
OF AN INCH OF RAIN PROJECTED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES.
GIVEN WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, WE'LL TAKE ANY RAIN WE CAN
GET.
COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE WEEKEND SYSTEM AND MAKE THINGS
CHILLY FOR MAY STANDARDS. SUNDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WILL BE AROUND
FREEZING. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES MAY SUPPORT ANOTHER
ROUND OF FROST FOR THE AREA. ANY HEADLINES REGARDING FROST OR
FREEZING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE DECIDED AS EARLY AS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2: NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FOR ENTIRE AREA IS THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE REGION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS AGREEMENT ON THE FORMATION AND PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT, BUT
DETAILS GET MURKY ON THE TIMING. THE FRONT LOOKS TO SLOW DOWN AS IT
APPROACHES AND MAY FIGHT FOR SPACE AGAINST THE WESTERN PORTION OF A
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC. SINCE THIS EVENT IS ABOUT A WEEK
OUT, IT IS TOO EARLY TO KNOW OF ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER TO
THE AREA OR GENERAL IMPACTS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED AS
WE GET CLOSER TO ITS ARRIVAL DATE.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING, THEN BECOMING SCATTERED AND
REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING
WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT, BUT BECOME BREEZY AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
THE LACK OF WIND AND COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE SUPPORTIVE
OF FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT CLOUD COVER ADVANCING IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS MAY INHIBIT ITS DISTRIBUTION. ONCE THE SUN RISES,
ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE AND TERMINALS WILL RESUME THEIR VFR
STATUS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST TWO
OPPORTUNITIES IN THE FOLLOWING DAYS. ONE IS THIS WEEKEND AS A
STORM SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. THE RAIN AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS EVENT WILL PROVIDE THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR KLYH AND KDAN. RULE OF THUMB IS,
THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO, THE GREATER YOUR CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE
COLD FRONT WILL SEND ADDITIONAL COLD AIR THROUGH SO DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS, THERE MAY BE A ROUND OF FOG FOR AT LEAST
KDAN.
THE NEXT EVENT WILL BE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MORE POTENT AND PROVIDE RAIN
AND SUB- VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS. GIVEN THIS SYSTEM IS
ABOUT A WEEK AWAY, IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE TIMING,
DURATION, AND INTENSITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
VAZ019-020.
NC...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
WVZ043-044-507-508.
DISCUSSION...CG
AVIATION...CG/RCS
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