164
FXUS61 KRNK 010536
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
136 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
FROST ADVISORIES ARE STILL IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING, BUT
CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE.
CUTTING PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL DOWN SOME PER RECENT TRENDS
ACROSS THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM GIVES GLANCING BLOW OF MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SATURDAY.
2) FROST POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MOUNTAINS.
3) NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: GLANCING BLOW OF RAIN SATURDAY.
KEPT FROST ADVISORY IN PLACE, AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S. SOME HIGH CLOUDS COULD OFFSET THE FROST SOMEWHAT,
BUT COULD SEE FROST BEFORE THIS HAPPENS.
OTHERWISE, SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID
ATLANTIC TODAY WITH SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ALSO MOVING ACROSS. AT
THE MOMENT, MODELS ARE KEEPING ANY SHOWER CHANCES CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS OF WV AND THAT IS LOW CHANCE AT BEST.
A FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER ENERGY AND MAKE FOR CLOUDIER SKIES SATURDAY. MODEL TRENDS
ARE SHIFTING THE MAIN RAIN TO OUR SOUTH, BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE
THE NC PIEDMONT COUNTIES WILL SEE AT LEAST A DECENT CHANCE OF
RAIN, WITH LITTLE TO NONE FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST
WV TO NEW RIVER VALLEY/ALLEGHANYS AREA. EVEN WITH THE RAIN,
FORECAST AMOUNTS WILL BE A THIRD OF AN INCH AT BEST ACROSS THE
NC PIEDMONT INTO SOUTHSIDE VA, WITH LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE RAIN
NORTHWEST. NO INSTABILITY NOTED WITH THIS BEING AN OVERRUNNING
STABLE AIRMASS EVENT.
THE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT BIT COOLER IN THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S, WITH SOME 40S IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: FROST POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE SATURDAY SYSTEM DECREASING CLOUDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS OF
FROST IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE SAT NIGHT. FURTHER EAST, CLOUDS MAY
NOT CLEAR FAST ENOUGH AND NORTHWEST WINDS MAY STAY UP LONGER AS
WELL.
LOOKING AT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT FROM AROUND 30 IN THE GREENBRIER
VALLEY AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE NC/VA HIGHER ELEVATIONS, TO
LOWER TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WITH UPPER
30S ACROSS THE ROANOKE VALLEY AND EAST.
KEY MESSAGE 3: THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE REGION WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS AGREEMENT ON THE FORMATION AND PASSAGE OF
THIS FRONT, BUT DETAILS GET MURKY ON THE TIMING. THE FRONT LOOKS
TO SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES AND MAY FIGHT FOR SPACE AGAINST
THE WESTERN PORTION OF A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC. SINCE
THIS EVENT IS ABOUT A WEEK OUT, IT IS TOO EARLY TO KNOW OF ANY
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER TO THE AREA OR GENERAL IMPACTS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED AS WE GET CLOSER TO ITS ARRIVAL DATE.
IN THE MEANTIME, TEMPERATURES START WARMING AGAIN PRIOR TO THE
MID TO LATE WEEK SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FLIGHT RULES SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXCEPTION WOULD BE FOR POTENTIAL IFR FOG AT LWB THIS MORNING.
HIGH CLOUDS MAY LIMIT THIS, BUT WILL MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL
LOWER THAN 3SM.
THE SYSTEM COMING INTO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING WILL BRING
SOME OVERCAST ALTOCUMULUS/ALTOSTRATUS TO DAN. ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS, WEAK TROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BRING
CIGS DOWN TO 4-6KFT AT BLF/LWB
WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING AROUND THROUGH THE PERIOD, STARTING OUT
VARIABLE THIS MORNING BUT LIGHT, THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER
12-13Z, THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH. A FEW GUSTS TO 15 TO 20KTS POSSIBLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EXPECT SOME POTENTIAL SUB-VFR
WITH LIGHT RAIN MAINLY AT DAN, POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTHWEST AS
BCB/ROA. COULD ALSO BE SOME UPSLOPE MVFR OR LOWER CIGS AT
BLF/LWB AS WELL.
THINGS ARE GOING TO CLEAR OUT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
APPEARS VFR WILL REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY, OUTSIDE ANY LIGHT NIGHT
RIVER VALLEY FOG AT LWB, POSSIBLY BCB MONDAY NIGHT.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ019-020.
NC...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ043-044-507-
508.
DISCUSSION...CG/WP
AVIATION...CG/RCS/WP
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