812
FXUS61 KRNK 011817
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
217 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAINFALL TRENDING LOWER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GLANCING BLOW OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
2) FROST POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MOUNTAINS.
3) THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, MOST
LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: GLANCING BLOW OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC THIS
AFT/EVE, WITH SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ALSO MOVING ACROSS, MAY RESULT IN
SOME LOW-END SHOWER CHANCES, MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS OF WV.
A FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY ALOFT, RESULTING IN CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE VA AREAS, WITH
LITTLE TO NONE FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST WV TO NEW RIVER
VALLEY/ALLEGHANYS AREA. EVEN WITH THE RAIN, FORECAST AMOUNTS WILL BE
MAINLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH, THOUGH SOME ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT INTO SOUTHSIDE VA, WITH
LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE RAIN NORTHWEST. NO INSTABILITY NOTED WITH
THIS BEING AN OVERRUNNING STABLE AIRMASS EVENT.
THE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT BIT COOLER IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S, WITH SOME 40S IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS SATURDAY. WHERE
RAIN OCCURS, TEMPS COULD BE A BIT LOWER.
KEY MESSAGE 2: FROST POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MOUNTAINS.
BEHIND THE SATURDAY SYSTEM DECREASING CLOUDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS OF FROST
IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE SAT NIGHT. FURTHER EAST, CLOUDS MAY NOT CLEAR
FAST ENOUGH AND NORTHWEST WINDS MAY STAY UP LONGER AS WELL.
LOOKING AT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT FROM AROUND 30 IN THE GREENBRIER
VALLEY AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE NC/VA HIGHER ELEVATIONS, TO LOWER TO
MID 30S ELSEWHERE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WITH MAINLY UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE ROANOKE VALLEY AND EAST.
KEY MESSAGE 3: THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, MOST LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AFTER A STRONG WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK, A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
WEEK. DETAILS ARE STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS VARY ON HOW
QUICKLY A SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US WILL PHASE WILL THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS ENERGY, ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY MAY
INFLUENCE HOW ROBUST SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. CURRENTLY THERE ARE SIGNALS IN THE MODELS THAT
THE INITIAL PRECIP MAY WEAKEN LATE WEDNESDAY AS IT CROSS THE
MOUNTAINS, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTO
THURSDAY. OVERALL, HOWEVER, THIS IS A NOTEWORTHY RAIN SHADOW
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
AND EVEN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FLIGHT RULES SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR MOST SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION IS SOME POSSIBLE SUB-VFR WITH LIGHT RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, MAINLY AT DAN BUT COULD STRETCH AS FAR NORTHWEST AS
BCB/ROA. COULD ALSO BE SOME UPSLOPE MVFR OR LOWER CIGS AT BLF/LWB AS
WELL
THE SYSTEM COMING INTO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING WILL BRING SOME
OVERCAST ALTOCUMULUS/ALTOSTRATUS TO DAN. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, WEAK
TROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BRING CIGS DOWN TO 4-6KFT AT
BLF/LWB
WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING AROUND THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH ALL SITES
BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH.
A FEW GUSTS TO 15 TO 20KTS ARE POSSIBLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
THINGS ARE GOING TO CLEAR OUT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
APPEARS VFR WILL REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY, OUTSIDE ANY LIGHT NIGHT
RIVER VALLEY FOG AT LWB, POSSIBLY BCB MONDAY NIGHT.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...RAH
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