449
FXUS61 KRNK 020011
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
811 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT,
BUT THE NEXT WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL FOR RAIN MAY NOT COME UNTIL
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
2) FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND FROST ARE POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT, BUT THE NEXT WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL FOR RAIN MAY NOT
COME UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY
SATURDAY MORNING AND SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE VIRGINIA
PIEDMONT DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS THAT LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA WILL NOT
RECEIVE ANY OF THIS RAINFALL. AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE RATHER LIGHT
ANYWAY, SO THIS SYSTEM SHOULD NOT ALLEVIATE THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
IT WILL TAKE UNTIL NEXT WEEK FOR ANY MEANINGFUL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. RIDGING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES, WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE PLAINS. THE
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOVE
EASTWARD DUE TO THE BLOCKING RIDGE. SOME MOISTURE FROM THE WARM
FRONT MAY APPROACH SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA ON MONDAY, BUT THE
NEXT WIDESPREAD OPPORTUNITY OF ANY RAIN MAY NOT COME UNTIL
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHEN THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND THE COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND FROST ARE POSSIBLE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
AFTER THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM SATURDAY EXITS OFFSHORE, HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH WINDS TURNING LIGHTER AND SKIES CLEARING,
RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY SUNDAY
MORNING. SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY BE IMPACTED BY THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES OR THE POTENTIAL AREAS OF FROST. AS A RESULT, THIS
RISK IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. LOCATIONS IN THE PIEDMONT
SHOULD ONLY REACH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. A WARMING TREND WILL
TAKE PLACE THEREAFTER INTO NEXT WEEK TO END ANY THREAT OF FROST
AND FREEZE CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO
THE SOUTH. SHOWERS MAY APPROACH DAN BY SATURDAY. THE WIND WILL
SWING AROUND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS DURING
MONDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, BUT CONFIDENCE ON ANY IMPACTS TO
AVIATION REMAIN LOW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE ON WEDNESDAY TO BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PW
AVIATION...PW
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