834
FXUS61 KRNK 020529
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
129 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED.
CUT PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL BACK AGAIN, AS TRENDS
SHOW LITTLE/NO RAINFALL ANY FURTHER NORTH THAN VA/NC BORDER.
WILL LIKELY NEED FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE STORM SYSTEM MIDWEEK WITH
HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY INSTEAD OF WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NOT MUCH RAIN TODAY, DRY FOR MOST.
2) FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND FROST ARE POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
3) NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: VERY LOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY.
CONTINUING TO SEE MODEL TRENDS THAT HAVE RAIN FURTHER SOUTH WITH
THIS SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. GIVEN THIS TREND THE PAST 24 HOURS+
HAVE LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN MAINLY
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM WILKESBORO NC TO MARTINSVILLE VA
TO FARMVILLE, VA, WITH DRY WEATHER NORTH. CANNOT RULE OUT
SPRINKLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST IF
THAT.
CLOUD COVER WILL EXPANSIVE THIS MORNING, EXCEPT SOME SCATTERED
CLEARING SPOTS OVER SOUTHEAST WV, THEN SHOULD SEE DECREASING
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL WITH 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2: FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND FROST ARE POSSIBLE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
AFTER THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM SATURDAY EXITS OFFSHORE, HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH WINDS TURNING LIGHTER AND SKIES CLEARING,
RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY SUNDAY
MORNING. SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY BE IMPACTED BY THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES OR THE POTENTIAL AREAS OF FROST. PER COLLABORATION
WITH OTHER OFFICES, WILL WAIT TIL LATER TODAY FOR HEADLINE
POTENTIALS, BUT LOOKS A GIVEN FOR MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS TO HAVE
A FROST ADVISORY, WITH FREEZE WARNING POTENTIAL IN SOUTHEAST WV. LOCATIONS
IN THE PIEDMONT SHOULD ONLY REACH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. A
WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THEREAFTER INTO NEXT WEEK TO END
ANY THREAT OF FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 3: NEXT BEST RAIN CHANCE COMES WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM, NOW DELAYING THE BETTER CHANCE WITH THE FRONT
ARRIVING WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME INSTABILITY WITH THIS
THIS FRONT SO EXPECT SHOWERS/ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORMS. AT THE
MOMENT APPEARS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL THOUGH
SHEAR LOOKS DECENT.
FAIRLY BREEZY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, SO WITH SOME COOLDOWN,
FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL LATE NEXT WEEK IS LOW, EXCEPT PERHAPS THE
GREENBRIER VALLEY SAT MORNING.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE HOVERING BETWEEN MVFR/VFR ACROSS BLF/LWB
EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
TIL 08-12Z, WITH HEIGHTS RUNNING 2-4KFT.
OTHERWISE APPEARS VFR TO STICK WITH ALL SITES FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD. THAT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS TRENDING SOUTH FOR NOW
AND TOOK OUT ANY RAIN FOR DAN, AND KEPT CIGS VFR.
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 20KTS TODAY ACROSS ROA/BCB/BLF, THEN
DIMINISH SAT NIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS DURING MONDAY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS, BUT CONFIDENCE ON ANY IMPACTS TO AVIATION REMAIN LOW.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
LATE ON WEDNESDAY TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PW/WP
AVIATION...PW/WP
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