444
FXUS61 KRNK 021837
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
237 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED.
LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 30S
ELSEWHERE HAVE NECESSITATED THE ISSUANCE OF A FREEZE WARNING AND
FROST ADVISORY IN LOCATIONS AS APPROPRIATE FOR TONIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING.
NO LARGE CHANGES TO UPCOMING MID-WEEK SYSTEM FOR RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FREEZING TEMPERATURES HAVE PROMPTED FROST AND FREEZE
HEADLINES FOCUSED IN THE MOUNTAINS.
2) NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: FREEZING TEMPERATURES HAVE PROMPTED FROST AND FREEZE
HEADLINES FOCUSED IN THE MOUNTAINS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BECOME THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE
IN THE AREA BEHIND A FRONT, SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL HAVE
CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS, RADIATIVE COOLING WILL BE QUITE STRONG,
DROPPING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA, AND EVEN INTO THE UPPER 20S FOR SOME PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WV. AS SUCH, A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A
NUMBER OF MOUNTAIN COUNTIES, AND A FROST ADVISORY FOR MOST OTHER
COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
ANOTHER FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER WILL LEAD US INTO THE NEXT
WORKWEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE EXPECTED
APPROACH OF THE NEXT RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEM. THE BULK OF RAIN
CHANCES ARE PROGGED TO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WHEN DIURNAL HEATING HAS DESTABILIZED
THE SURFACE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENING.
ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO BRING MORE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND, BUT THERE IS MORE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE IMPACTS OF THAT SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH MODEST NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
FRIGID AS FAR AS MAY GOES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, SO
ANY NIGHT OWL OR EARLY BIRD AVIATORS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON ICING
POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S FOR ALL SITES, AND
EVEN SUB FREEZING FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT BLF/LWB/BCB.
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 20KTS TODAY ACROSS ROA/BCB/BLF, THEN
DIMINISH SAT NIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS DURING MONDAY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS, BUT CONFIDENCE ON ANY IMPACTS TO AVIATION REMAIN LOW.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
LATE ON WEDNESDAY TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
VAZ007-009>015-017-019-020-024.
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
VAZ016-018-022-023-032>035-043.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
NCZ001-018.
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
NCZ002-003-019.
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
WVZ042>044-507-508.
DISCUSSION...VFJ
AVIATION...VFJ/WP
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