183
FXUS61 KRNK 030514
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
114 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FREEZING TEMPERATURES HAVE PROMPTED FROST AND FREEZE
HEADLINES FOCUSED IN THE MOUNTAINS.
2) NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: FREEZING TEMPERATURES HAVE PROMPTED FROST AND FREEZE
HEADLINES FOCUSED IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE SHIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME PALPABLE AS HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES HOLD BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT, ASSERTING ITSELF
AS THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE OVER THE REGION. AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES, THE LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSOLVE AND THE
WINDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND
RIDGES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, THE SKY WILL REMAIN VIRTUALLY
CLOUDLESS FOR THE DURATION OF THE NIGHT.
THIS LACK OF CLOUD COVER, COUPLED WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS, WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR INTENSE RADIATIVE COOLING. BY DAWN,
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE PLUMMETED INTO THE 30S ACROSS ALMOST THE
ENTIRE AREA, WHILE THE COLDEST POCKETS OF SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S. TO ACCOUNT FOR
THESE CONDITIONS, A FREEZE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR
SEVERAL MOUNTAIN COUNTIES, WHILE A FROST ADVISORY WILL COVER THE
REMAINING TERRITORY ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
ANOTHER FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER WILL LEAD US INTO THE NEXT
WORKWEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE EXPECTED
APPROACH OF THE NEXT RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEM. THE BULK OF RAIN
CHANCES ARE PROGGED TO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WHEN DIURNAL HEATING HAS DESTABILIZED
THE SURFACE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENING.
ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO BRING MORE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND, BUT THERE IS MORE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE IMPACTS OF THAT SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT SUNDAY, THOUGH WINDS WILL PICK UP
AGAIN BY MID-MORNING, THE TALLY OFF AGAIN AT DUSK SUNDAY
EVENING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE SUNDAY EVENING IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A VFR REGIME EARLY WEEK. WHILE A
STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MIGHT DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
MONDAY, CONFIDENCE IN ANY DIRECT AVIATION IMPACTS REMAINS LOW.
THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD STEADY THROUGH TUESDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THE WEATHER WILL
SHIFT LATE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST,
LIKELY INTRODUCING SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CEILINGS, CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>015-
017-019-020-024.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ016-018-022-
023-032>035-043.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-018.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ002-003-019.
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-507-
508.
DISCUSSION...RCS/VFJ
AVIATION...RCS/WP
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