580
FXUS61 KRNK 030550
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
150 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED.
HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FROST/FREEZE THIS MORNING.
2) DECENT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: FROST/FREEZE THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN KY EARLY THIS MORNING SHIFTS
TO THE UPPER TN VALLEY BY DAWN. AS SUCH WINDS WILL BE
CALM/LIGHT. THE FEW CLOUDS THAT ARE OUT THERE NOW WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINE LOOKS GOOD AND NO CHANGES PLANNED.
WE STAY SUNNY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES STILL RUNNING BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 WEST, TO MID TO
UPPER 60S EAST, KIND OF WHAT WE WERE EXPECTING BACK IN EARLY
APRIL INSTEAD OF THE SUMMER LIKE TEMPS WE GOT.
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND WARM FRONT ALOFT COULD BRING SOME
SCATTERED STORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY, BUT MODELS ARE KEEPING
IT LOW ON THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT FALLS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DECENT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WED-THU.
THE AMPLIFIED AND SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA CONTINUES TO DRIVE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AND
REPEATED TROUGH REINFORCEMENT ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. THIS
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA MIDWEEK. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH- SOUTHEAST AND WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN U.S.
IN ADDITION, GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGES
MIDWEEK.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND WILL PULL
WARM GULF MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY, WHICH WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY, WITH MODELS
AGREEING FOR HIGH POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. GOING INTO THURSDAY,
THE FRONT PUSHES CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST WITH A TRAILING FRONT
STRETCHING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY, WITH HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS OVER SOUTHEAST.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED AN INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM THIS
2 DAY EVENT WHICH IS MUCH NEEDED. HOWEVER, HEAVIER RAINFALL
RATES ON A DRY GROUND WILL ONLY RUNOFF, BUT WITH THE DROUGHT,
ANY RAIN CAN ONLY HELP, BUT NEED A MORE STEADY MULTI-DAY RAIN
TO HELP EASE THE DROUGHT INSTEAD OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
A NORTHERN STREAM FRONT ARRIVES BY SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS BUT DOES NOT HAVE AS MUCH GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
SO ONLY EXPECTING LIGHTER SHOWER CHANCES.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT SUNDAY, THOUGH WINDS WILL PICK UP
AGAIN BY MID-MORNING, THE TALLY OFF AGAIN AT DUSK SUNDAY
EVENING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE SUNDAY EVENING IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A VFR REGIME EARLY WEEK. WHILE A
STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MIGHT DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
MONDAY, CONFIDENCE IN ANY DIRECT AVIATION IMPACTS REMAINS LOW.
THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD STEADY THROUGH TUESDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THE WEATHER WILL
SHIFT LATE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST,
LIKELY INTRODUCING SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CEILINGS, CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>015-
017-019-020-024.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ016-018-022-
023-032>035-043.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-018.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ002-003-019.
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-507-
508.
DISCUSSION...VFJ/WP
AVIATION...RCS/WP
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