217
FXUS61 KRNK 031811
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
211 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW IN A WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STORM
EVENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS OCCURRING FOR ALMOST
THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY- THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS OCCURRING FOR ALMOST
THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY- THURSDAY.
BROAD TROUGHING OVER MOST OF THE CONUS WILL BE DRIVEN BY A
STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA THIS WEEK. ON WEDNESDAY A FRONT
WILL BE PULLED THROUGH THE AREA, BRINGING WIDESPREAD POPS TO
SOUTHWEST VA. TIMING-WISE, IT APPEARS THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ALLOWING DIURNAL
HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE SURFACE LAYER, INCREASING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WITH ITS OWN TRAILING FRONT WILL ADHERE
CLOSELY TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF WEDNESDAY'S FRONT, ELONGATING
ITSELF ZONALLY AS IT APPROACHES US ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN OVER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED CONVECTION. FORECAST RAIN TOTALS FOR
BOTH DAYS ARE BETWEEN 0.75"-1.5", WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL
VA.
HOW THE RAIN FALLS WILL DETERMINE ITS IMPACT ON THE DROUGHT.
HIGH RAINFALL RATES IN STRONG CONVECTION WILL MOSTLY RUN OFF, AS
WE ARE DRY ENOUGH THAT WATER ABSORPTION RATE IN THE GROUND IS
REDUCED. A STEADIER, EVEN PACED RAINFALL WILL ALLOW MORE OF THE
QPF TO ABSORB.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT SUNDAY, THOUGH WINDS WILL PICK UP
AGAIN BY MID-MORNING, THE TALLY OFF AGAIN AT DUSK SUNDAY
EVENING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE SUNDAY EVENING IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A VFR REGIME EARLY WEEK. WHILE A
STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MIGHT DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
MONDAY, CONFIDENCE IN ANY DIRECT AVIATION IMPACTS REMAINS LOW.
THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD STEADY THROUGH TUESDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THE WEATHER WILL
SHIFT LATE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST,
LIKELY INTRODUCING SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CEILINGS, CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...VFJ
AVIATION...VFJ/WP
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