454
FXUS61 KRNK 040020
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
820 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
COULD BE SEEN AROUND SUNRISE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW IN A WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STORM
EVENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS OCCURRING FOR ALMOST
THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY- THURSDAY.
2) A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA LATE THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS OCCURRING FOR ALMOST THE
ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY.
BROAD TROUGHING OVER MOST OF THE CONUS WILL BE DRIVEN BY A
STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA THIS WEEK. ON WEDNESDAY A FRONT
WILL BE PULLED THROUGH THE AREA, BRINGING WIDESPREAD POPS TO
SOUTHWEST VA. TIMING-WISE, IT APPEARS THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ALLOWING DIURNAL
HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE SURFACE LAYER, INCREASING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WITH ITS OWN TRAILING FRONT WILL ADHERE
CLOSELY TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF WEDNESDAY'S FRONT, ELONGATING
ITSELF ZONALLY AS IT APPROACHES US ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN OVER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED CONVECTION. FORECAST RAIN TOTALS FOR
BOTH DAYS ARE BETWEEN 0.75"-1.5", WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL
VA.
HOW THE RAIN FALLS WILL DETERMINE ITS IMPACT ON THE DROUGHT.
HIGH RAINFALL RATES IN STRONG CONVECTION WILL MOSTLY RUN OFF, AS
WE ARE DRY ENOUGH THAT WATER ABSORPTION RATE IN THE GROUND IS
REDUCED. A STEADIER, EVEN PACED RAINFALL WILL ALLOW MORE OF THE
QPF TO ABSORB.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA LATE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
EXPECT MOSTLY MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE
REGION. THE THICKEST CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE US-460 CORRIDOR, CLOSER TO THE DISTURBANCE'S CENTER. A
FEW SHOWERS COULD BE SEEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WHICH COULD EEK OUT A HUNDREDTH OF AN
INCH (OR TWO), BUT MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAINLY MID- AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM W TO E
THIS EVENING, AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A
FEW LOWER CIGS COULD BE SEEN, ESPECIALLY IVOF KLWB, BUT EVEN IN
THIS REGION, NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS SUCH,
FLIGHT CATEGORIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH 05/0000 UTC.
GENERALLY L/V WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BECOME SW AND INCREASE TO
AT LEAST 10 KTS AFTER 04/1800 UTC AT MOST TERMINALS. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT HIGHER GUSTS (APPROACHING 15-20 KTS.) COULD BE
SEEN, BUT MY CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT THESE VALUES
IN THE 04/0000 UTC TAF PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: ISOLD -SHRA/TSRA COULD BE SEEN, ESPECIALLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, NO RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SHRA/TSRA AS A
STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA.
FRIDAY: CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DB/VFJ
AVIATION...DB
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