406
FXUS61 KRNK 040624
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
224 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST, WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS/STORMS TO IMPACT THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY. MOST AREAS
2) A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS OF VA/WV.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DECENT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL AREAWIDE
MIDWEEK.
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIVE CYCLONIC FLOW AND REPEATED TROUGH REINFORCEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A STRETCH OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA WED-THU. THE PROGRESSIVE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS US BY THURSDAY BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE BY THE WEEKEND, THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
CONTINUE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE
WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THU-SAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS OF VA/WV.
AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH
SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO FORM
IN THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS KEEP
THE "BEST" CHANCE OVER SOUTHEAST WV INTO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
BUT AM ALLOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO SURVIVE THE BLUE
RIDGE CROSSING WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HERE AND KEEP
POPS OVERALL IN THE 20-30% RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL TODAY AND TUESDAY. TUESDAY
LOOKS THE DRIER DAY OF THE NEXT FEW.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAINLY MID- AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING. A FEW SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE AT LWB BUT NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED.
EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
AROUND THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM LWB/ROA/LYH CORRIDOR
BUT TOO ISOLATED TO HAVE IN THE TAFS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING THEN INCREASE AFTER
14Z WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SHRA/TSRA AS A
STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA.
FRIDAY: CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...VFJ/WP
AVIATION...DB/WP
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