381
FXUS61 KRNK 041822
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
222 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST, WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME.
INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON TUESDAY. HAVE ADDED A FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS/STORMS TO IMPACT THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY.
2) A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS OF VA/WV.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS/STORMS TO IMPACT THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIVE CYCLONIC FLOW AND REPEATED TROUGH REINFORCEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A STRETCH OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA WED-THU. THE PROGRESSIVE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS US BY THURSDAY BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE BY THE WEEKEND, THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
CONTINUE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE
WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THU-SAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS OF VA/WV.
AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH
SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO FORM IN THE
MOUNTAINS. A FEW OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS KEEP THE
"BEST" CHANCE OVER SOUTHEAST WV INTO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS BUT
AM ALLOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO SURVIVE THE BLUE
RIDGE CROSSING WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HERE AND KEEP
POPS OVERALL IN THE 20-30% RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL TODAY AND TUESDAY. TUESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE DRIER DAY OF THE NEXT FEW.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD, WITH
SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SCATTERED ABOUT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5-10 KTS, WITH GUSTS PICKING UP ON
TUESDAY MORNING REACHING UP TO 20KTS BEFORE NOON.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE SCENARIO IS HIGH.
OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SHRA/TSRA AS A
STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA.
FRIDAY: CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
WIDESPREAD DROUGHT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION AND WITH A LACK OF
ANY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...COULD SEE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ON TUESDAY.
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST USUALLY BRINGS A MORE MOIST AIRMASS, DRY AIR
ALOFT, ALONG WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET MAY ALLOW FOR
ENHANCED MIXING OF LOWER DEW POINTS TO THE SURFACE BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE 30S AND DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S COULD RESULT IN MIN RH
FALLING INTO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS SUSTAINED 10 TO 15MPH,
WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25MPH. A COMBINATION OF LOW RH AND GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FIRE DANGER ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. EVER INCREASING CANOPY FROM GREENUP MAY HELP
LIMIT THE UPPER END POTENTIAL, BUT DRY UNDERBRUSH IS STILL
SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID FIRE SPREAD.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG/WP
AVIATION...VFJ/WP
FIRE WEATHER...BMG
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