515
FXUS61 KRNK 051040
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
640 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED.
OVERALL FORECAST WITH MIDWEEK SYSTEM HAS NOT CHANGED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS/FEW STORMS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.
2) SHOWER CHANCES AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWER/STORM CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY.
STARTING OUT DRY TODAY WITH SOME CIRRUS AT TIMES. SHOULD BE
BREEZY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S, WITH LOWER 80S EAST.
UPPER WAVE AND WARM FRONT ENTERS THE AREA TONIGHT AND WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. A
BRIEF LULL POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE WITH THE
FRONT ARRIVES. THERE WILL A TRAIN OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH INTO THURSDAY AND MOST AREAS
SHOULD SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL, WITH A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO 1 TO
2 INCH AMOUNTS IN A FEW SPOTS, WITH MODELS CENTERING THE BETTER
PROBABILITY OF THIS HAPPENING OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST VA.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGE 2... SHOWER CHANCES THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW HOVERING OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL SERVE
AS ANCHOR FOR CYCLONIC FLOW AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE ENERGIES NEAR
THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH. THE TRAILING END OF A PREVIOUS COLD
FRONT WILL STALL OVER/NEAR THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST AND WILL
INTERACT WITH WARM GULF MOISTURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
IN ADDITION, ANOTHER FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY BRINGING A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. ALL SITES SHOULD HAVE GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25KT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY.
CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING MAINLY BE IN THE 8-12KT RANGE,
WHILE WINDS ALSO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET. TOWARD 09-12Z, CEILINGS
WILL LOWER TO MVFR FROM ROA/BCB WEST TO LWB/BLF WITH SHOWERS AT
LWB/BLF. AT THE MOMENT KEEPING VSBY VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. SHOULD HAVE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BUT SOME SUB-VFR CIGS AGAIN
POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/FEW STORMS ESPECIALLY
THE MOUNTAINS.
FIRE WEATHER
INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH
VALLEY, VA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD DROUGHT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION AND WITH A LACK OF
ANY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST USUALLY BRINGS A MORE MOIST AIRMASS, DRY AIR
ALOFT, ALONG WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET MAY ALLOW FOR
ENHANCED MIXING OF LOWER DEW POINTS TO THE SURFACE BY THE
AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE 30S AND DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S COULD RESULT IN MIN RH
IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15MPH, WITH
SOME GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH, ARE EXPECTED. A COMBINATION OF LOW
RH AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FIRE DANGER ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION TOMORROW. EVER INCREASING CANOPY FROM GREENUP
MAY HELP LIMIT THE UPPER END POTENTIAL, BUT DRY UNDERBRUSH IS
STILL SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID FIRE SPREAD.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG/WP
AVIATION...AS/WP
FIRE WEATHER...AS/BMG/WP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page