722
FXUS61 KRNK 051832
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
232 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE DECREASED SOME FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS/FEW STORMS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.
2) SHOWER CHANCES AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWER/STORM CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY.
UPPER WAVE AND WARM FRONT ENTERS THE AREA TONIGHT AND WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. A
BRIEF LULL POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE WITH THE
FRONT ARRIVES. THERE WILL A TRAIN OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH INTO THURSDAY AND MOST AREAS
SHOULD SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL, WITH A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
EXPECTED. HOWEVER, AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED LOWER TODAY, BUT ANY
RAIN WILL BE WELCOMED CONSIDERING THE ONGOING WIDESPREAD
DROUGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO 1 TO
2 INCH AMOUNTS IN A FEW SPOTS, WITH MODELS CENTERING THE BETTER
PROBABILITY OF THIS HAPPENING OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST VA. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE OF STORMS GIVEN
SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED SHOWERY ACTIVITY, LIMITING
INSTABILITY. MAIN FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING,
SO THIS PERIOD WOULD BE THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR STORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGE 2... SHOWER CHANCES THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW HOVERING OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL SERVE
AS ANCHOR FOR CYCLONIC FLOW AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE ENERGIES NEAR
THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH. THE TRAILING END OF A PREVIOUS COLD
FRONT WILL STALL OVER/NEAR THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST AND WILL
INTERACT WITH WARM GULF MOISTURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
IN ADDITION, ANOTHER FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY BRINGING A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND
THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AS A FRONT APPROACHES EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN FILLING IN
CLOUD CEILINGS AND LOWERING CIGS AS WELL. MOUNTAIN AREAS (BLF/LWB)
MAY DROP INTO MVFR AROUND DAYBREAK. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO FALL IN THE
WEST AROUND 8AM FOR BLF/LWB, AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH
THE MORNING. MOST TAF SITES SHOULD EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF RAIN
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. EXPECT WINDS OF 10-15
KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST, GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS AT TIMES AT
HIGH ELEVATION SITES.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE SCENARIO IS ABOVE AVERAGE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. SHOULD HAVE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BUT SOME SUB-VFR CIGS AGAIN
POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/FEW STORMS ESPECIALLY
THE MOUNTAINS.
FIRE WEATHER
INCREASED FIRE DANGER FOR THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY, VA
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE SEEN CONDITIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS AND AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SUFFICIENTLY MIX HAVE
SEEN DEW POINTS FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S. THIS HAS RESULTED IN
RH VALUES INTO THE LOWER 30 PERCENT RANGE. A COMBINATION OF
THESE LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE
CONTINUED FIRE DANGER THROUGH THIS EVENING. EVER INCREASING
CANOPY FROM GREENUP MAY HELP LIMIT THE UPPER END POTENTIAL, BUT
DRY UNDERBRUSH IS STILL SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID FIRE SPREAD.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG/WP
AVIATION...VFJ/WP
FIRE WEATHER...AS/BMG/WP
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