488
FXUS61 KRNK 052350
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
750 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED FOR THE 00Z/8 PM TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS/FEW STORMS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.
2) SHOWER CHANCES AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWER/STORM CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY.
UPPER WAVE AND WARM FRONT ENTERS THE AREA TONIGHT AND WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. A
BRIEF LULL POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE WITH THE
FRONT ARRIVES. THERE WILL A TRAIN OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH INTO THURSDAY AND MOST AREAS
SHOULD SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL, WITH A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
EXPECTED. HOWEVER, AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED LOWER TODAY, BUT ANY
RAIN WILL BE WELCOMED CONSIDERING THE ONGOING WIDESPREAD
DROUGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO 1 TO
2 INCH AMOUNTS IN A FEW SPOTS, WITH MODELS CENTERING THE BETTER
PROBABILITY OF THIS HAPPENING OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST VA. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE OF STORMS GIVEN
SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED SHOWERY ACTIVITY, LIMITING
INSTABILITY. MAIN FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING,
SO THIS PERIOD WOULD BE THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR STORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGE 2... SHOWER CHANCES THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW HOVERING OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL SERVE
AS ANCHOR FOR CYCLONIC FLOW AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE ENERGIES NEAR
THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH. THE TRAILING END OF A PREVIOUS COLD
FRONT WILL STALL OVER/NEAR THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST AND WILL
INTERACT WITH WARM GULF MOISTURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
IN ADDITION, ANOTHER FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY BRINGING A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD, WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO FALL TO MVFR/IFR AS RAIN
ENTERS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE 09Z
TO 12Z TIMEFRAME. RAIN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND
18Z WEDNESDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SPORADIC SHOWER ACTIVITY,
INTERMIXED WITH BREAKS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WAVE OF
MORE STEADY RAINFALL, POSSIBLY WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS, IS
FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING AROUND 21Z,
RESULTING IN LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. EXPECT WINDS OF
10-15 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST, GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS
AT TIMES AT HIGH ELEVATION SITES.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE SCENARIO IS ABOVE AVERAGE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY, WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, HOWEVER SUB-
VFR CEILINGS MAY REDEVELOP ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG/NF
AVIATION...NF
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