572
FXUS61 KRNK 060547
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
147 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAFS
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED DOWN FOR TODAY-THURSDAY.
HIGHER AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ACROSS NC.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOWERED SATURDAY WITH BETTER CHANCE LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BRING SHOWERS TODAY AND THURSDAY.
2) SHOWER CHANCES AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/FEW STORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY.
SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH ACROSS TODAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AIDING IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
SHOWERS WILL PUSH INTO THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING BECOME A
LITTLE MORE SCATTERED SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NC PIEDMONT. CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT THERE WILL BE PEAKS OF SUNSHINE
TO ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED STORMS.
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE BEST CHANCES THIS MORNING, THEN
POTENTIAL LULL IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND THIS
EVENING. SEEMS WITH FASTER WEST TO EAST FLOW ALOFT, THE FRONT
MAY PUSH THROUGH QUICKER KEEPING RAIN CHANCES LOWER IN THE WV/VA
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY WITH BETTER COVERAGE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN REDUCED WITH MOST AVERAGING A QUARTER
TO HALF AN INCH, WITH AROUND AN INCH SOUTH OF DANVILLE TO SOUTH
OF WILKESBORO. ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR TRAINING OF HEAVIER SHOWERS
COULD BRING LOCALLY 2 INCH AMOUNTS.
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE
CLOUD COVER, HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES FROM THE MODELS
WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA, POTENTIALLY
REACHING 70 ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGE 2... SHOWER CHANCES THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
THE CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING CYCLONIC FLOW AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE ENERGIES NEAR THE BASE
OF THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS WILL FACILITATE THE PROGRESSION OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AND A SLIGHT COOLDOWN FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MORNING. STRONG LOW
LEVEL WINDS MAY LEAD TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT TIMES.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND LOWERING CEILINGS TO REACH THE MOUNTAINS
BETWEEN 09-12Z REACHING LYH/DAN 12-15Z. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
FALL TO MVFR/IFR. SHOWERS TO PERSIST OFF AND ON THROUGH AROUND
18Z WEDNESDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SPORADIC SHOWER ACTIVITY,
INTERMIXED WITH BREAKS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WAVE OF
MORE STEADY RAINFALL, POSSIBLY WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS, IS
FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING AROUND 21Z,
RESULTING IN LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF BCB-LYH THIS EVENING AND
MORESO SOUTH OF DAN-HLX.
GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY POTENTIAL HAVE NOT MENTIONED THUNDER
AT ANY TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES, MAINLY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS.
CONFIDENCE IN SUB-VFR WITH SHOWERS IS ABOVE AVERAGE, BUT LOWER
ON SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED TO PERSIST THURSDAY, WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY HAS ANOTHER FRONT AND SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES WITH SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG/WP
AVIATION...NF/VFJ/WP
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