929
FXUS61 KRNK 061050
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
650 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAFS
KEY MESSAGES
1) FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BRING SHOWERS TODAY AND THURSDAY.
2) SHOWER CHANCES AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/FEW STORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY.
SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH ACROSS TODAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AIDING IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
SHOWERS WILL PUSH INTO THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING BECOME A
LITTLE MORE SCATTERED SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NC PIEDMONT. CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT THERE WILL BE PEAKS OF SUNSHINE
TO ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED STORMS.
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE BEST CHANCES THIS MORNING, THEN
POTENTIAL LULL IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND THIS
EVENING. SEEMS WITH FASTER WEST TO EAST FLOW ALOFT, THE FRONT
MAY PUSH THROUGH QUICKER KEEPING RAIN CHANCES LOWER IN THE WV/VA
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY WITH BETTER COVERAGE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN REDUCED WITH MOST AVERAGING A QUARTER
TO HALF AN INCH, WITH AROUND AN INCH SOUTH OF DANVILLE TO SOUTH
OF WILKESBORO. ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR TRAINING OF HEAVIER SHOWERS
COULD BRING LOCALLY 2 INCH AMOUNTS.
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE
CLOUD COVER, HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES FROM THE MODELS
WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA, POTENTIALLY
REACHING 70 ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGE 2... SHOWER CHANCES THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
THE CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING CYCLONIC FLOW AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE ENERGIES NEAR THE BASE
OF THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS WILL FACILITATE THE PROGRESSION OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AND A SLIGHT COOLDOWN FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHOWERS WILL ADVANCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
CIGS STARTING AT VFR BUT DECREASING TO MVFR TO IFR THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE WILL BE A RESPITE IN THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON BUT STILL SCATTERED AROUND. A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AS WELL ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LWB-MTV.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20KTS THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL LIKELY TANK IN THE IFR
CATEGORY AS WELL AS VSBYS SINKING TO 1 TO 3SM, POSSIBLY LOWER
AS MAIN THREAT OF RAIN LOOKS TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER
AND FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED TO PERSIST THURSDAY, WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY HAS ANOTHER FRONT AND SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES WITH SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG/WP
AVIATION...NF/VFJ/WP
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