317
FXUS61 KRNK 062351
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
751 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BRING SHOWERS/STORM THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY.
2) SHOWER CHANCES AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BRING SHOWERS/STORM THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY.
SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE AIDING IN LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING FOR MOST OF
THE DAY SO FAR, BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
WITH VERY FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AT THE MOMENT, BUT
ADDITIONAL BREAKS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON SO STILL POSSIBLE
TO SEE SOME SUN.
RAP ANALYSIS DOES INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY INCREASING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
ALONG WITH CAMS SUPPORTING SOME SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT.
THIS COINCIDES WITH BREAKS OF CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER EAST TN AND
WESTERN NC. SHOULD THESE BREAKS WORK NORTH, COULD HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE OF STORMS. HOWEVER, STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD
REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING GIVEN
CURRENT TRENDS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN REDUCED WITH MOST AVERAGING A QUARTER
TO HALF AN INCH, WITH EVEN LESSER AMOUNTS ALONG THE I64
CORRIDOR. ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR TRAINING OF HEAVIER SHOWERS
COULD BRING LOCALLY 2 INCH AMOUNTS.
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE
CLOUD COVER, HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES FROM THE MODELS
WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA, POTENTIALLY
REACHING 70 ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGE 2... SHOWER CHANCES THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
THE CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING CYCLONIC FLOW AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE ENERGIES NEAR THE BASE
OF THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS WILL FACILITATE THE PROGRESSION OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AND A SLIGHT COOLDOWN FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FOR NOW, FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR MOST ARE VFR, WITH A FEW POCKETS
OF MVFR TO IFR. HOWEVER, THAT WILL CHANGE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS REACHES THE AREA THIS
EVENING. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD, AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL START TO TAPER
OFF IN THE WEST BY THURSDAY MID MORNING, AND THEN IN THE EAST BY
MIDDAY. THROUGHOUT THIS TIME, EXPECT SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND
PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY WITHIN RAIN SHOWERS. THERE COULD
ALSO BE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS NEXT ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION, BUT MOST OF THE LIGHTNING APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. COULD ALSO SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG
DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE
FROM THE RAIN. ALL SITES LOOK TO RETURN TO VFR AFTER 21Z OR SO
THURSDAY, BUT STILL CLOUDY.
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, TURNING MORE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND THEN NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FOR THE PIEDMONT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BY 8 TO 12 KNOTS OR
SO, BUT GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE THURSDAY, AND PERSIST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY HAS ANOTHER FRONT AND SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES WITH SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG/WP
AVIATION...AS/VFJ/WP
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