618
FXUS61 KRNK 201715
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
115 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE
AFTERNOON TODAY AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. LESSER
CHANCES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, WHICH WILL STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE, LIMITING STORM CHANCES.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BOARD ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY GIVEN STRONG WEDGING SIGNAL IN SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE.
AN AIR QUALITY ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CASWELL, ROCKINGHAM,
AND STOKES COUNTIES IN NC THROUGH 12AM THURSDAY DUE TO CODE
ORANGE FOR GROUND LEVEL OZONE.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, BEGINNING WITH A COLD FRONT TODAY AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, BEGINNING WITH A COLD FRONT TODAY AND THURSDAY.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSH EAST
THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO CANADA. AHEAD OF THIS SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT, SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ADVECTING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, WITH PWATS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 1.00 TO 1.5 INCHES. THESE PWATS COMBINED WITH MODEST
SURFACE HEATING ON THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO SCBAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500 J/KG BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR BOTH TODAY AND
THURSDAY. TODAY, LINGERING SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT FREE OF RAIN/STORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING.
BY THURSDAY, BULK SHEAR VALUES LOOK TO ALSO BE MODEST AT 20-30
KNOTS; WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME MULTICELLULAR THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS ACROSS THE REGION. THESE CLUSTERS MAY LEAD TO SOME
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL. CURRENTLY THE BIGGEST
UNKNOWN WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY IS THE PROGRESSION
OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING WEDGE FROM
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC AND ONTARIO. IF THIS
BACKDOOR FRONT MAKES TOO MUCH PROGRESS SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
THE SEVERE THREAT FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE MUCH MORE LIMITED THAN
WHAT SOME CAM GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
REDUCED SEVERE WIND THREAT, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HAIL TO
STILL FORM IN THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ABOVE THE COOLER AIRMASS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.
WEDGING WILL STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO
BORDER. GIVEN A MORE FAVORABLE HIGH LOCATION AND CONTINUED
SHOWERS, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE, SO HAVE TRENDED FRIDAY DAYTIME HIGHS LOWER ONCE AGAIN
TODAY COMPARED TO NBM. REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAIN WILL OCCUR
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTING
MOIST AIR NORTH OVER THE WEDGING HIGH PRESSURE... WHILE THIS MAY
RUIN OUTDOOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND PLANS, IT WILL HOPEFULLY BRING
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE REGION AT A STEADY ENOUGH RATE TO
PROVIDE SOME AGRICULTURAL AND DROUGHT RELIEF TO THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH REPEATED RAINFALL LOOKS TO OCCUR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED RAINFALL IS NOT LOOKING VERY
LIKELY, THEREFORE FLOODING POTENTIAL REMAINS VERY LOCALIZED.
OVER THE NEXT WEEK, SEVEN DAY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 3.0 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN
THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF SOME OF THIS RAINFALL, THESE TOTALS MAY
LOCALLY BE HIGHER OR LOWER DEPENDING ON LOCATIONS OF STORMS
DEVELOPING, AND PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA. AS WAS MENTIONED
ABOVE, ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE EXTREMELY BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION
WITH MUCH OF THIS RAINFALL LIKELY FALLING OVER A LONGER PERIOD
OF TIME, WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL FLASH FLOOD THREAT GIVEN
THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE, WITH CLEAR SKIES
IN THE EAST, AND SOME MID LEVEL CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. BY 20Z OR SO, WILL START TO SEE SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AND
CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS, BUT LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED
IN COVERAGE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE BEFORE 06Z THURSDAY. RAIN AND
STORMS COULD BRING PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY AND LOWER CEILINGS,
AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS.
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
IN THE WEST, ESPECIALLY IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY OF WV, SO MAINLY
IMPACTING KLWB, POSSIBLY KBLF.
SKIES REMAIN BKN TO OVC INTO THURSDAY MORNING, AND SUB-VFR CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEST AND THEN EXPANDING INTO THE
FOOTHILLS BY AROUND 09Z THURSDAY. KDAN HOLDS OUT LONGER FROM THE
LOWER CEILINGS UNTIL AFTER 16Z.
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS TODAY, BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT, THEN
TURNING MORE NORTHEASTERLY BY THURSDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH A STALLED FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD
TO PERIODS OF SUB- VFR AT ALL TERMINALS EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
NOTE: BLUEFIELD (KBLF) ASOS IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING A
TECHNICAL OUTAGE DUE TO A MAJOR POWER SUPPLY FAILURE.
REPLACEMENT PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDERED. ETA OF REPAIR IS CURRENTLY
UNKNOWN. AMD NOT SKED IS BEING APPENDED TO ITS TAF.
CLIMATE
RECORD-BREAKING HEAT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS AND OUR CURRENT FORECAST.
WEDNESDAY, MAY 20, 2026
STATION HI MAX T HI MIN T FORECAST HIGH
ROANOKE 98 IN 1934 70 IN 1998 94
LYNCHBURG 96 IN 1941 68 IN 1902 94
DANVILLE 97 IN 1996 68 IN 2018 96
BLUEFIELD 87 IN 1996 66 IN 1996 83
BLACKSBURG 90 IN 1934 66 IN 1893 89
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ004>006.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB
AVIATION...AS
CLIMATE...BMG/RCS
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