931
FXUS61 KRNK 202356
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
756 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST LATER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT, SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD ADVECT MOISTURE ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. BY
THURSDAY, BULK SHEAR VALUES REACH 20-30 KNOTS, WHICH MAY LEAD TO
SOME MULTICELLULAR THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS. THESE CLUSTERS MAY
LEAD TO SOME STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. CURRENTLY, THE
BIGGEST UNKNOWN WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY IS THE
PROGRESSION OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST. IF THIS
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED ON
THURSDAY, THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BECOME MORE LIMITED.
WEDGING SHOULD STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. REPEATED ROUNDS
OF RAIN WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTING MOIST AIR NORTH OVER THE
SHALLOW WEDGE. THIS RAIN SHOULD HOPEFULLY BRING MUCH NEEDED
RELIEF FOR THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN BY MEMORIAL DAY. WHILE CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
THE OVERALL COVERAGE APPEARS MORE SCATTERED AND SHOULD RESEMBLE
A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD MOSTLY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT,
BUT THERE MAY BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT, AND CEILING HEIGHTS SHOULD STEADILY DROP.
SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR BLF AND LWB BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD FALL TOWARD IFR FOR MOST
LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY AS THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE. A NORTHEAST WIND MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS
AT DAN AND LYH. BY THURSDAY EVENING, VISIBILITIES SHOULD BEGIN
TO LOWER AS PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WHICH WILL KEEP CEILINGS AT
IFR AND MVFR FOR MOST TERMINALS. A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING
MOISTURE TO KEEP SKIES GENERALLY CLOUDY AND PROVIDE SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PATCHY FOG. SOME CLEARING MAY TAKE PLACE BY
MONDAY TO BRING CEILINGS BACK TOWARDS VFR, BUT THERE MAY BE
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
NOTE: THE BLUEFIELD (KBLF) ASOS IS CURRENTLY DOWN DUE TO A
MAJOR POWER SUPPLY FAILURE. REPLACEMENT PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDERED.
ETA OF THIS REPAIR IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THUS, AMD NOT SKED IS
BEING UTILIZED FOR THE BLF TAF.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ004>006.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB/PW
AVIATION...PW
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