270
FXUS61 KRNK 211749
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
149 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HEAVY DOWNPOURS LIKELY AND POSSIBLY STRONG
GUSTY WINDS IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
RAIN CHANCES LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA
AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA
AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY.
TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY,
WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT CURRENTLY POSITIONED ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR
SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA
PIEDMONT. A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST IS ALSO MAKING PROGRESS THROUGH
NW NORTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME SW VIRGINIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL. AS THESE TWO FRONTS ZIPPER CLOSED ON EACH OTHER, ENOUGH
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. CURRENTLY SPC MESOANALYSIS HAS MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER
500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE, WITH NEAR 700-1000 J/KG OF DCAPE. THE
SBCAPE WILL HELP WITH THUNDERSTORM GROWTH ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES, AND THE DCAPE WILL AID IN STRONG DOWNBURST
FORMATION. AS DOWNBURSTS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, THEY WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH, THAT MAY CAUSE
DOWNED TREES, POWER POLES, AND DAMAGE TO SMALL STRUCTURES. ANY
DOWNED TREES AND POWER POLES COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THIS MORNINGS KRNK UPPER AIR SOUNDING MEASURED A PWAT OF 1.18
INCHES; HOWEVER, RAP MESOANALYSIS FROM SPC'S MESOANALYSIS WEBSITE
HAS PWATS CURRENTLY AT 1.4 INCHES ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA. NORMALLY THIS TYPE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY COLLISION COMBINED WITH
PWATS THIS HIGH WOULD LEAD TO A HIGHER FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE AREA; HOWEVER, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA IN EXTREME DROUGHT AND
DESPERATELY NEEDING RAINFALL, THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS LOW.
MUCH OF THE AREAS FFG FOR THE 1 AND 3 HOUR TIMEFRAME IS IN THE 3-4
INCH RANGE. WHILE THIS ISN'T IMPOSSIBLE TO SEE TODAY, ANY RAINFALL
AT THESE TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE ABSORBED BY PARCHED LOCAL PLANT LIFE,
AND TO FILL EMPTY STREAMS ACROSS THE REGION. IN SUMMARY, WHILE IT'S
POSSIBLE TO SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 3-4 INCH RANGE
TODAY FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS, THE OVERALL THREAT REMAINS LOW GIVEN
THE ONGOING EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
BY FRIDAY, A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL WEDGE INTO THE
MOUNTAINS, OFFERING COOLER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
(FRIDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-50S TO LOWER 60S).
WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING, A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI WILL DRAG IT BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AND GRANT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR THE
AREA. THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEDGE WILL MEAN MUCH OF THE STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ELEVATED. CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF SURFACE
HEATING WILL PREVENT ANY SERIOUS CONVECTION BUT THE WARM FRONT AND
CONTINUAL STREAM OF MOISTURE AT THE 850MB LEVEL WILL PROVIDE IDEAL
CONDITIONS FOR PRECIPITATION. IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO KNOW HOW MUCH
RAIN WILL FALL AS MUCH OF THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL DEPEND ON THE
SPEED OF THE WARM FRONT AND ITS DURATION IN OUR AREA. THE NORTH
CAROLINA COUNTIES LOOK TO BE THE FAVORED REGION FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITH TOTALS REACHING ONE INCH BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
MORNING. AREAS ELSEWHERE MAY RECEIVE MUCH LESS, BETWEEN 0.25-0.67".
FLOOD CONCERNS ARE ALSO LOW FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST UNLESS
THERE IS SERIOUS TRAINING OVER A SPECIFIC LOCATION AND ASSUMING AND
RAIN FROM THURSDAY DOES NOT OVERPERFORM. NEVERTHELESS, PWAT VALUES
ARE TO HOLD STEADY BETWEEN 1.5-1.75" INTO NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES IN SOME STORMS.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTH AND THE
CAD ERODED. WARM AIR WILL RETURN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND DEW POINTS WILL BE AROUND THE 50S AND 60S. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF QUIET PERIOD IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
DEPENDING ON HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR THE WARM FRONT TO PROGRESS,
BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH TOWARDS
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BE A TRIGGERING
MECHANISM FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES GOING.
WHILE THE RAIN IS EXCELLENT FOR THE DROUGHT, MORE ATTENTION MAY
BE NEEDED FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING THREATS AS SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAINFALL MAY HAVE FALLEN BY THE TIME THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.
SOME MODELS ALSO HINT THE FRONT MAY STALL OVER THE REGION WHICH
MAY PROLONG THE PRECIPITATION TREND. CONFIDENCE ON FLOODING IS
STILL LOW GIVEN HOW FAR OUT THIS EVENT IS AND IT HIGHLY DEPENDS
ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS BEFORE THEN. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, HIGHER PRESSURE MOVES IN AND SHOULD PUT A STOP TO THE
RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY DISAPPEARING ACROSS THE AREA AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO FILL IN OVER THE REGION. MVFR TO
IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIKELY MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEFORE LOWERING CIGS
FROM THE WEDGE SETTLE OVER THE REGION STARTING AROUND 00 UTC FRIDAY.
THESE CIGS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE IFR TO LIFR LEVELS THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS AS WEDGING REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. ALONG WITH LOW CIGS, WINDS WILL PREDOMINANTLY
BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST/EAST ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AT AROUND 5-10
KNOTS, WITH GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE AT TIMES. WITH WARM MOIST
AIR RIDING OVER THE SHALLOW COOL AIR AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE
REGION, LIGHT ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY AND DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY AFTER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON'S THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THESE SHOWERS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND LOW CIGS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL KEEP CEILINGS AT MVFR TO IFR LEVELS FOR MOST TERMINALS.
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS RIDING OVER COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THESE RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME, AS WELL AS PROVIDE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PATCHY
FOG AT TIMES. GUIDANCE LOOKS TO KEEP DAILY RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUDS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION
RETURNING STARTING MONDAY. THESE CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO POOR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CG/EB
AVIATION...EB
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