537
FXUS61 KRNK 220847
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
447 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED.
LOWERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
RAIN CHANCES LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: LIGHT AND MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH
DRIZZLE THROUGH TOMORROW.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: LIGHT AND MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH
DRIZZLE THROUGH TOMORROW.
A WEDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
ENTRENCHED TO OUR NORTHEAST. PATCHY FOG POCKMARKS THE AREA THIS
MORNING, AND LIGHT DRIZZLE IS KEEPING THE GROUND WET IN PLACES.
AS WE MOVE FURTHER INTO THE DAY, SHOWERS AND RAIN WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN. THIS AFTERNOON MAY SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FORM UP IN THE MOUNTAINS, THOUGH CONVECTION WILL
BE WEAK AS INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED. BECAUSE OF THE CAD,
CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY TO OCCUR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE
PIEDMONT, AS THAT IS A VERY STABLE ENVIRONMENT, AND THE OVERCAST
SKIES WILL FURTHER PREVENT DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION.
SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH THE SAME AS THE CAD SETUP IS NOT EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE. HOWEVER, THERE IS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF
CONVECTION AND THUNDER FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS A FRONT
IN THE AREA MAY PROVIDE THE FORCING TO OVERCOME THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY IN LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL ALSO GENERALLY BE WEAK
CONVECTION, AND SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. EXPECTED
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS IS GENERALLY ONE TO TWO INCHES,
WITH AROUND HALF AN INCH EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CAD
EFFECTS WILL NOT OCCUR.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTH AND THE
CAD ERODED. WARM AIR WILL RETURN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND DEW POINTS WILL BE AROUND THE 50S AND 60S. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF QUIET PERIOD IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
DEPENDING ON HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR THE WARM FRONT TO PROGRESS,
BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH TOWARDS
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BE A TRIGGERING
MECHANISM FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES GOING.
WHILE THE RAIN IS EXCELLENT FOR THE DROUGHT, MORE ATTENTION MAY
BE NEEDED FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING THREATS AS SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAINFALL MAY HAVE FALLEN BY THE TIME THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.
SOME MODELS ALSO HINT THE FRONT MAY STALL OVER THE REGION WHICH
MAY PROLONG THE PRECIPITATION TREND. CONFIDENCE ON FLOODING IS
STILL LOW GIVEN HOW FAR OUT THIS EVENT IS AND IT HIGHLY DEPENDS
ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS BEFORE THEN. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, HIGHER PRESSURE MOVES IN AND SHOULD PUT A STOP TO THE
RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
CIGS ARE VERY LOW ALL AROUND THE AREA, AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEDGE SETUP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS WILL
KEEP CIGS IN THE TANK, WAVERING BETWEEN IFR/LIFR. EXPECT A GRAY,
DRIZZLY DAY WITH LIGHT RAIN CROPPING UP ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
MORNING THERE WILL ALSO BE PATCHES OF FOG, THOUGH CURRENTLY THIS
SEEMS CONCENTRATED IN THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND NC HIGH
COUNTRY.
WINDS ARE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, GENERALLY IN THE 4-8 KT
RANGE TODAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE SCENARIO IS ABOVE NORMAL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND LOW CIGS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP CEILINGS AT MVFR TO IFR LEVELS FOR MOST
TERMINALS. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS RIDING OVER
COOL NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THESE RESTRICTIONS
IN PLACE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, AS WELL AS PROVIDE SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PATCHY FOG AT TIMES. GUIDANCE LOOKS TO KEEP
DAILY RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION RETURNING STARTING MONDAY.
THESE CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SH/VFJ
AVIATION...SH/VFJ
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