154
FXUS61 KRNK 221836
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
236 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HIGH PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, BUT IT WILL NOT RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE REGION TO PROMOTE
PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: IS THERE A CHANCE FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL?
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE REGION TO PROMOTE
PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS.
A SLOW-MOVING, WAVY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL-EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FAVORING BOTH DIURNAL AND NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY. IN GENERAL, STORMS
WILL TEND TO FORM OVER THE UNSTABLE AIR SOUTH OF THE FRONT
DURING THE DAY, THEN DRIFT ACROSS THE RELATIVELY COOLER MORE
STABLE AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT AT NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE FRONT WILL ALSO MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WITH
POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS AND DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY VICINITY OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND HIGHER TERRAIN. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN
TRANSITION TO WARMER CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT DRIFTS NORTH OF
THE AREA BY MEMORIAL DAY.
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS (CAMS) DEPICT A HEALTHY WAVE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING AIDED BY DYNAMIC LIFT FROM
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY.
AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT LEADING TO NEAR CATEGORICAL POPS FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE, ACTIVITY TO BECOME
MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH FOCUS
FAVORING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE HEATING OF THE DAY
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO OVERALL INSTABILITY.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURE, NOT MUCH DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL
DIFFERENCE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, READINGS REMAINING IN THE
50S AND 60S AS LONG AS WE ARE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT.
ONCE WE TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONT WE WILL HAVE
OPPORTUNITY TO RETURN TO 70S/80S FOR HIGHS AND 50S/60S FOR LOWS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: IS THERE A CHANCE FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL?
IN SPITE OF THE DROUGHT, NEVER SAY NEVER. YES THERE IS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
DURING THE 5-7 DAY PERIOD. THIS WOULD MOSTLY LIKELY COME IN THE
FORM OF AN INTENSE DOWNPOUR FROM A THUNDERSTORM, WHICH IS
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE PWAT FORECAST OF 1.50 TO 2.00. RAIN RATES OF
2 TO 4 INCHES AN HOUR WOULD BE COMMON WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT,
SO THERE WILL BE SOME FROG STRANGLERS OUT THERE...JUST NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A GREATER FLOOD CONCERN OR SOMETHING THAT
WOULD INVOLVE THE RIVERS. BOTTOM LINE...WE NEED THE RAIN, BUT BE
ON THE LOOK OUT FOR PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS,
AND RESCUE THOSE PROVERBIAL FROGS IF NEED BE.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LIFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE REGION LIES WITHIN A COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO
PATTERN. VISIBILITIES WILL FLUCTUATE MORE WITHIN THE FULL GAMBIT OF
FLIGHT CATEGORIES THANKS TO BOTH MIST/FOG ACROSS THE REGION AND
WAVES OF LIGHT RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS CROSSING THE REGION. A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, FORMING WITHIN A REGION OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION, ABOVE A STRONG AND STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS WILL EITHER BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR
PREDOMINATELY FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION EXT THRU WED
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY, THE PATTERN BEGINS TO MORPH WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING
MORE SOUTHEAST, WITH THE BEGINNINGS OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH
THE REGION AND THE CONCLUSION OF THE COLD AIR DAMMING PATTERN. WHILE
CEILINGS WILL TREND HIGHER, MOST LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THE WARM FRONT OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA WAVERS IN LOCATION WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW STILL PUMPING PLENTY OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS, PRECIPITATION, AND FOG/MIST TO
IMPACT THE AERODROME.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...DS
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