898
FXUS61 KRNK 222354
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
754 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED. THUNDER CHANCES WERE
REDUCED SIGNIFICANTLY FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, AND
FOG COVERAGE WAS INCREASED DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE REGION TO PROMOTE
PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: IS THERE A CHANCE FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL?
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE REGION TO PROMOTE
PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS.
THUNDER CHANCES WERE REDUCED SIGNIFICANTLY FOR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW DUE TO THE STABLE WEDGE OF COOL AND DAMP EASTERLY FLOW
ALREADY IN PLACE. CONVECTION RESIDING OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA IS ALREADY STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN LIGHTNING AND HOLD
TOGETHER AS IT APPROACHES THE SHALLOW MARITIME LAYER WEDGED
AGAINST THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ALSO, THIS
AFOREMENTIONED DAMP AIR MASS SHOULD PROMOTE AREAS OF FOG TO
DEVELOP WITH SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE POSSIBLY
SEEING THAT FOG BECOMING DENSE OVERNIGHT. SOME CHANCES OF
THUNDER COULD RETURN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SLOW-MOVING, WAVY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL-EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FAVORING BOTH DIURNAL AND NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY. IN GENERAL, STORMS
WILL TEND TO FORM OVER THE UNSTABLE AIR SOUTH OF THE FRONT
DURING THE DAY, THEN DRIFT ACROSS THE RELATIVELY COOLER MORE
STABLE AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT AT NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE FRONT WILL ALSO MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WITH
POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS AND DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY VICINITY OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND HIGHER TERRAIN. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN
TRANSITION TO WARMER CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT DRIFTS NORTH OF
THE AREA BY MEMORIAL DAY.
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS (CAMS) DEPICT A HEALTHY WAVE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING AIDED BY DYNAMIC LIFT FROM
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY.
AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT LEADING TO NEAR CATEGORICAL POPS FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE, ACTIVITY TO BECOME
MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH FOCUS
FAVORING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE HEATING OF THE DAY
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO OVERALL INSTABILITY.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURE, NOT MUCH DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL
DIFFERENCE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, READINGS REMAINING IN THE
50S AND 60S AS LONG AS WE ARE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT.
ONCE WE TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONT WE WILL HAVE
OPPORTUNITY TO RETURN TO 70S/80S FOR HIGHS AND 50S/60S FOR LOWS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: IS THERE A CHANCE FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL?
IN SPITE OF THE DROUGHT, NEVER SAY NEVER. YES THERE IS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
DURING THE 5-7 DAY PERIOD. THIS WOULD MOSTLY LIKELY COME IN THE
FORM OF AN INTENSE DOWNPOUR FROM A THUNDERSTORM, WHICH IS
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE PWAT FORECAST OF 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES. RAIN
RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES AN HOUR WOULD BE COMMON WITHIN THIS
ENVIRONMENT, SO THERE WILL BE SOME FROG STRANGLERS OUT
THERE...JUST NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A GREATER FLOOD CONCERN OR
SOMETHING THAT WOULD INVOLVE THE RIVERS. BOTTOM LINE...WE NEED
THE RAIN, BUT BE ON THE LOOK OUT FOR PONDING OF WATER IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS, AND RESCUE THOSE PROVERBIAL FROGS IF NEED BE.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A STABLE COOL EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE AGAINST THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
CONSEQUENTLY, PERIODS OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH LIFR CEILINGS AND
FOG SHOULD TAKE PLACE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POOR INTO SATURDAY WITH LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. SOME RAIN SHOWERS MAY
APPROACH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER POSSIBLE DUE TO ELEVATED CONVECTION.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
POOR FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
DUE TO A COOL EASTERLY FLOW WEDGED AGAINST THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. FOG APPEARS LIKELY AGAIN DURING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LIFR/IFR CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER INTO
SUNDAY, BUT THE FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD TO ERODE THE COOL WEDGE SOMETIME
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SUB-VFR CEILINGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT STALLS
OVERHEAD.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM/PW
AVIATION...PW
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