228
FXUS61 KRNK 231057
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
657 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED. THUNDER CHANCES WERE
REDUCED SIGNIFICANTLY FOR SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE REGION TO PROMOTE
PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: IS THERE A CHANCE FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL?
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE REGION TO PROMOTE
PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS.
A SLOW-MOVING, WAVY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL-EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FAVORING BOTH DIURNAL AND NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY. DUE TO THE COOL
WEDGE IN PLACE, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE REDUCED SIGNIFICANTLY
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. A MID-LEVEL WAVE IS ENHANCING THE
EFFICIENCY OF RAIN PROCESSES TODAY AS WELL. FURTHER SOUTH WHERE
THE IMPACT OF CAD IS LIMITED, AND WARMER AIR, AS WELL AS BREAKS
IN CLOUDS, WILL ALLOW DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION TO BE MUCH
STRONGER. THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE GREATER IN NC AND AREAS SOUTH
AND WEST.
AS ANY THUNDER PRODUCING CONVECTION STRENGTHENS, IT WILL BE
CAUGHT IN THE MEAN FLOW AND POTENTIALLY DRIFT INTO THE COOLER
MORE STABLE REGION. BECAUSE OF THIS RISK, THE CHANCES OF THUNDER
HAVE NOT BEEN REDUCED TO ZERO IN THE WEDGED REGION.
COME SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HAVE
PASSED, CAUSING THE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO BE MORE
SCATTERED THAN WIDESPREAD, THOUGH MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD EXPECT
SOME PRECIP AT SOME POINT DURING THOSE DAYS.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURE, NOT MUCH DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL
DIFFERENCE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, READINGS REMAINING IN THE
50S AND 60S AS LONG AS WE ARE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT.
ONCE WE TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONT WE WILL HAVE
OPPORTUNITY TO RETURN TO 70S/80S FOR HIGHS AND 50S/60S FOR LOWS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: IS THERE A CHANCE FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL?
IN SPITE OF THE DROUGHT, NEVER SAY NEVER. YES THERE IS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
DURING THE 5-7 DAY PERIOD. THIS WOULD MOSTLY LIKELY COME IN THE
FORM OF AN INTENSE DOWNPOUR FROM A THUNDERSTORM, WHICH IS
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE PWAT FORECAST OF 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES. RAIN
RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES AN HOUR WOULD BE COMMON WITHIN THIS
ENVIRONMENT, SO THERE WILL BE SOME FROG STRANGLERS OUT
THERE...JUST NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A GREATER FLOOD CONCERN OR
SOMETHING THAT WOULD INVOLVE THE RIVERS. BOTTOM LINE...WE NEED
THE RAIN, BUT BE ON THE LOOK OUT FOR PONDING OF WATER IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS, AND RESCUE THOSE PROVERBIAL FROGS IF NEED BE.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
PERSISTENT LOW CIGS IN THE LIFR/IFR LEVELS WILL BE PRESENT AT
ALMOST ALL TIMES OF THE DAY AND NIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
WITH SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COVER THE AREA LATER
THIS MORNING AND THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON, ALSO DETERIORATING
FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND VSBY AT TIMES. DURING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY, ALSO EXPECT FOG TO CROP UP AS A
RESULT OF HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE AND A STABLE
ENVIRONMENT. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE, AROUND 5KT
OR LESS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
POOR FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY DUE TO A COOL
EASTERLY FLOW WEDGED AGAINST THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. FOG APPEARS LIKELY AGAIN DURING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. LIFR/IFR CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY, BUT
THE FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD TO ERODE THE COOL WEDGE SOMETIME BY SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH SUB-VFR CEILINGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT STALLS OVERHEAD.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PW/VFJ
AVIATION...PW/VFJ
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