216
FXUS61 KRNK 231735
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
135 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED. INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN
THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN OUR FORECAST
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
HEADING INTO MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN OUR FORECAST
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
A COLD AIR DAMMING PATTERN IS HOLDING FAST ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH OF
THE REGION HAS REMAINED SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH WAVES OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL. THE EXCEPTION IS WESTERN PORTIONS OF TAZEWELL CO WHERE
RICHLANDS, WITH A SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPING WIND, IS CLIMBING THROUGH THE
UPPER 60S -- JUST OUTSIDE THE EFFECTS OF THE DAMMING. THIS PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. CONCURRENTLY, THE
AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT, AND CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. ALL OF THIS IS CONDUCIVE
TO A CONTINUATION OF ROUNDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CROSSING THE
REGION, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STORM TO DEVELOP
IMMEDIATELY OUTSIDE THE AREA OF THE COLD AIR DAMMING, AND THEN
PROGRESS INTO THE REGION.
FOR SUNDAY, WE ARE EXPECTING THE COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE TO GRADUALLY
ERODE WITH THE PASSAGE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. OVERALL, EXPECT MILDER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION, AND AT LEAST DURING THE
MORNING TO MID-DAY, COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS
THAN THAT OF TODAY. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON, WE MAY EXPERIENCE ENOUGH
DIURNAL HEATING FOR INCREASED COVERAGE.
AS WE PROGRESS INTO MID-WEEK, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH OUR
AREA, AND THEN STALL, AND BECOME ORIENTED NEARLY WEST TO EAST. THIS
WILL BE COINCIDENT A CONTINUAL MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF VERY
MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION, INTERSECTING THIS STALLED FRONT. THIS
PATTERN WILL PROVIDE FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
THE REGION.
JUST HOW THIS STALLED FRONT MEANDERS IN TIME WILL PLAY A ROLL IN
BOTH COVERAGE AN QUANTITY OF RAIN FOR THE AREA HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. THE GENERAL TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS FOR A SLOW
PROGRESSION TO THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY, POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR LESS
COVERAGE FOR OUR REGION IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS, AS COMPARED TO
SOUTHERN.
KEY MESSAGE 2: EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY HEADING
INTO MID-WEEK.
OUR FRIENDS AT THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAVE HIGHLIGHTED OUR
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITHIN AN AREA OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FAR WESTERN SECTIONS ARE HIGHLIGHTED ON TUESDAY
AS WELL.
AS MENTIONED IN THE FIRST KEY MESSAGE, FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD, WE ARE EXPECTING A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED
FRONT TO BE STALLED OVER, OR VERY CLOSE TO OUR REGION. A
CONTINUAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION, AND INTERACT WITH THIS SAME FRONT. A
LOOK AT THE LATEST NAEFS SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE SHOWS ALL
THREE DAYS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.50 TO
2.00 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION, OR VALUES THAT WILL CORRESPOND TO
OVER THE 99 PERCENTILE OF THE 30-YEAR CFSR CLIMATOLOGY -- WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. UNDER A NON-DROUGHT
SITUATION, THIS TYPE OF PATTERN HAS IN THE PAST HAS BEEN
PROBLEMATIC FOR NOTABLE FLOODING CONCERNS. HOWEVER, SINCE WE ARE
IN A DROUGHT, THE GROUND WILL BE A BIG SINK FOR REMOVING MUCH
OF OUR FLOODING THREATS. HOWEVER, OVER THE PERIOD OF TIME THE
RAIN IS EXPECTED, WE COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW-
LYING AREAS, URBAN AREAS, AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.
THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THESE SAME TYPES OF REGIONS WILL INCREASE
THAT CONCERN.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LIFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE REGION LIES WITHIN A COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO
PATTERN. THESE LOW CEILINGS WILL LIKELY OBSCURE MANY RIDGETOPS.
CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AROUND MID-DAY SUNDAY AS THE WEDGE
PATTERN START TO ERODE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS AT AND NEAR
KJFZ. HERE, VFR CEILINGS PREVAIL CURRENTLY WITHIN THIS LOCATION
WEST OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE DAMMING. VISIBILITIES WILL
FLUCTUATE MORE WITHIN THE FULL GAMBIT OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES
THANKS TO BOTH MIST/FOG AND WAVES OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
CROSSING THE REGION. CURRENTLY, MUCH OF THE REGION IS
EXPERIENCING VFR VISIBILITIES, BUT NOT ALL LOCATIONS, AND THERE
WILL BE TREND TOWARDS LOWER VALUES DURING THE NIGHT, ONLY TO
REBOUND TO VFR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE, FORMING WITHIN A REGION OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION, ABOVE A STRONG AND STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS,
OR FROM THE RESULT OF FORMING SOUTH OF THE DAMMING, AND THEN
PROGRESSING INTO THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL EITHER BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OR PREDOMINATELY FROM THE NORTHEAST HEADING INTO
TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY, WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
A FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR NEAR THE REGION AND TAKE ON A WEST TO
EAST ORIENTATION. A PREVAILING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MOIST LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL INTERSECT THIS FRONT, PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR MANY ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS, AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS, THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
MANY AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THANKS TO THIS
PATTERN.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DS
AVIATION...DS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page