103
FXUS61 KRNK 241825
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
225 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ERODING MORE OR THE CAD/WEDGE TODAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY. AS A
RESULT, EXPERIENCING WARMER TEMPERATURES. WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: WARM HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN WITH
PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DUE TO
REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WARM HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN WITH
PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IT WAS NOTICEABLY MORE WARM AND HUMID TODAY WITH BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TRENDING UP. COOL WEDGE IS ERODING
PER INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. STILL SOME HOLDOUT POCKETS
OF RELATIVELY COOLER AIR NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE BUT BOUNDARY LAYER
STRATUS IS THINNING, ALLOWING FOR SOME PEAKS OF SUN. SO FAR THE
STABLE WEDGE HAS MANAGED TO REDUCE THE CAPE NEEDED FOR HEAVIER
SHOWERS, BUT LOOK FOR THIS TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
THE STABLE AIR WANES.
WILL BE WATCHING SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
UPPER FLOW SKIRT OUR AREA TO THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING
OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA, FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS WITH RESPECT TO GREATEST QPF
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, THEN REPEATING THE CYCLE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. IT WILL BE HARD
TO PEG EXACT TIMING OF FUTURISTIC ACTIVITY PER NOISY SHORTWAVE
PATTERN AND REMNANT STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT, BUT AT A MINIMUM,
SHOULD GET A DAILY BOOST OF CAPE FROM DAYTIME HEATING LEADING TO
GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR WETTING AND AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER.
IN A NUT SHELL, LOOKING AT SEVERAL DAYS OF CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER, SHOWERS, STORMS AND ELEVATED HUMIDITY. TEMPERATURES
MAY AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, BUT DUE TO THE ELEVATED
DEWPOINTS, THE AIR WILL FEEL WARMER DUE TO LESS EVAPORATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DUE TO
REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE (REGIONAL PWATS ABOVE 1.50) AND
POTENTIAL FOR REPEAT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. ACCUMULATIVE
RAIN TOTALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 1-2"
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...NOT SIGNIFICANT CONSIDERING THE
ONGOING DROUGHT, AND MUCH OF THIS EXPECTED TO BE INTERCEPTED BY
VEGETATION AND SOAKED UP BY THE THIRSTY GROUND. BUT DUE TO THE
HIGH RAIN RATES WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER DEEP CONVECTION IT IS
POSSIBLE TO GET ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF 3-4 INCHES OF RAIN IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME YIELDING GULLY WASHER TYPE RAINFALL ON A
LOCALIZED BASIS. AS SUCH, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS
HIGHLIGHTED OUR FORECAST AREA FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND EXPANDING IT TO
INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THE
MOST VULNERABLE BEING URBAN, LOW-LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
TO A LESSER CONCERN ARE THE RIVERS, BUT MULTIPLE DAYS OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN LEAD TO RISES ON THE LARGER STREAMS
TOO. EVEN IF IT DOES NOT FLOOD, THOSE CAMPING NEAR STREAMS NEED
TO BE AWARE OF SUDDEN RISES. THERE MAY BE TEMPTATION TO CAMP ON
SANDBARS AND ISLANDS, BUT WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, A
RIVER CAN RISE SEVERAL FEET IN JUST A FEW HOURS, QUICKLY
FLOODING WHAT APPEARED TO BE A SAFE PLACE TO CAMP.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LIFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE SLOWLY
ERODES. FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA NEAR KJFZ WILL LIE
OUTSIDE OF THE WEDGE, WITH BETTER CHANCES OF VFR CEILINGS. ON
MONDAY, EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CEILING
HEIGHT, BUT BY THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD CONCLUDING
18Z/2PM EDT MONDAY, MOST AREAS STILL ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE
LIFR/IFR CEILINGS. CURRENTLY, MUCH OF THE REGION IS EXPERIENCING
VFR VISIBILITIES, BUT NOT ALL LOCATIONS, AND THERE WILL BE
TREND TOWARDS LOWER VALUES DURING THE NIGHT, ONLY TO SLOWLY
REBOUND TOWARDS VFR BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY. WHILE MUCH OF
THE REGION HAS BEEN PRECIPITATION FREE SINCE THIS MORNING, SOME
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EXPAND EASTWARD.
ON MONDAY, COVERAGE WILL INCREASE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TOO BY THE LATE MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK.
A PREVAILING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MOIST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
INTERSECT THIS FRONT, PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR MANY ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS, AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS, THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD. MANY AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THANKS TO
THIS PATTERN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT STILL BE IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE IN THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...DS
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