329
FXUS61 KRNK 251851
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
251 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY, WITH FOCUS ON
PERIOD SHOWER/STORM THREAT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND DRYING TREND
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: WARM & HUMID CONDITIONS KEEP RAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY, WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING
POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MAINLY DRY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WARM & HUMID CONDITIONS KEEP RAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY, WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING
POSSIBLE.
AREA TO WATCH THIS EVENING IS THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT WHERE INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. COMBINATION
OF CONVERGENCE ALONG DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA AND
STEADY FLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH IS
EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. REGIONAL SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE MOIST
WITH PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS SUGGEST THE STRONGEST OF THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS TO BRING LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NC/VA
BORDER INTO THE PIEDMONT. GENERAL CONSENSUS IN LIEU OF DROUGHT
AND HIGH FFG VALUES, IS TO HOLD OFF ON FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES
OTHER THAN TO ADVERTISE GULLY WASHER TYPE RAINFALL RATES (2-3"
AN HOUR). WE DESPERATELY NEED THE RAIN, SO UNLESS THERE IS ANY
TRAINING OF STORM CELLS, THE ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE ALONG FAST
ENOUGH TO FORGO ANYTHING OTHER THAN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY. PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST WILL ALLOW FOR THE ADVECTION OF A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE
OUT OF THE GULF AND ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...A FEATURE THAT WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT AND AID IN SEVERAL MORE DAYS OF
PERIODIC RAINFALL. SINCE THE ORIGIN OF THE MOISTURE IS
FROM THE TROPICS, EXPECTING ENVIRONMENTAL SOUNDINGS TO REMAIN
VERY MOIST (+2 TO +3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL) AND
SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF EPISODIC HEAVY RAINFALL.
AS MENTIONED BEFORE, DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGH RAIN
RATES WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS, IT IS POSSIBLE FOR
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF 3" TO 4" OF RAIN TO FALL OVER A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME, RESULTING LOCALIZED FLOODING EVEN DESPITE RECENT
SEVERE DRYNESS. AS SUCH, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE LOWER MID- ATLANTIC IN A MARGINAL
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, THE MOST VULNERABLE BEING URBAN, LOW-LYING AND FLOOD
PRONE AREAS. TO A LESSER CONCERN ARE THE RIVERS, BUT MULTIPLE
DAYS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN LEAD TO RISES ON THE LARGER
STREAMS TOO. EVEN IF THEY DO NOT FLOOD, THOSE NEAR RIVERS AND
STREAMS NEED TO BE ALERT FOR SUDDEN RISES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MAINLY DRY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY PROMOTING NORTHERLY FLOW AND PUSHING THE
DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF OUR REGION. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON
A DRY ENDING TO THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES DECREASING. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE
HIGH MAKES INROADS, TEMPERATURES COULD END UP BELOW NORMAL TO
KICK OFF JUNE.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAINLY A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW POCKETS
OF LIFR AND LOW END VFR. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WITH A WIDE OF VISIBILITIES. MOST
LOCATIONS THOUGH ACROSS THE REGION HAVE VFR VISIBILITIES. AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING, WE
ARE EXPECTING A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH MORE SPOTS TOUCHING THE LOW END OF VFR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. WE MAY ALSO START TO SEE SOME STRAY
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE ENOUGH BREAKS MIGHT FORM IN THE OVERCAST FOR
SURFACE HEATING TO PROMPT DEEPER CONVECTION. HOWEVER, AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO TREND LOWER,
LIKEWISE WITH VISIBILITIES ARE MORE AREA START EXPERIENCING
MIST/FOG. ON TUESDAY, CEILINGS AGAIN WILL GRADUALLY TREND FOR MAINLY
LIFR/IFR TO HIGHER CATEGORIES AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, WITH MOST
AREAS MVFR BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL STILL BE COMMONPLACE
WITH PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS. WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE PROGRESSING INTO A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
HELP KEEP SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. AS WE PROGRESS INTO THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY, THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH AS DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM
THE NORTH. LOOK FOR LIMITED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION, OR CHANCES
PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION, AND MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL POSSIBLE.
LIKEWISE, SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE AREA WHERE THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE LOCATED.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...DS
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