465
FXUS61 KRNK 252333
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
733 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY, WITH FOCUS ON
PERIODIC SHOWER/STORM THREAT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND DRYING TREND
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: WARM & HUMID CONDITIONS KEEP RAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY, WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING
POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MAINLY DRY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WARM & HUMID CONDITIONS KEEP RAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY, WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING
POSSIBLE.
AREA TO WATCH THIS EVENING IS THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT, WHERE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS
ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FROM CHARLOTTE COUNTY VA TO
NORTHWEST NC ARE SLOWLY PROGRESSING TO THE EAST. SOME OF THE
STRONGER CELLS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING A LOT OF LIGHTNING, AND RAIN
RATES AS HIGH AS 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR
THIS EVENING IN THAT AREA ARE BETWEEN 1.5 TO 2.25 INCHES.
COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE ALONG DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE AREA AND STEADY FLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. REGIONAL SOUNDINGS
ARE QUITE MOIST WITH PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00.
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THE STRONGEST OF THE ACTIVITY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WITH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS TO BRING
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER INTO THE PIEDMONT. GENERAL
CONSENSUS IN LIEU OF DROUGHT AND HIGH FFG VALUES, IS TO HOLD OFF
ON FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES OTHER THAN TO ADVERTISE GULLY WASHER
TYPE RAINFALL RATES (2-3" AN HOUR). WE DESPERATELY NEED THE
RAIN, SO UNLESS THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF STORM CELLS, THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE ALONG FAST ENOUGH TO FORGO ANYTHING OTHER
THAN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY. PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST WILL ALLOW FOR THE ADVECTION OF A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE
OUT OF THE GULF AND ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...A FEATURE THAT WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT AND AID IN SEVERAL MORE DAYS OF
PERIODIC RAINFALL. SINCE THE ORIGIN OF THE MOISTURE IS
FROM THE TROPICS, EXPECTING ENVIRONMENTAL SOUNDINGS TO REMAIN
VERY MOIST (+2 TO +3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL) AND
SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF EPISODIC HEAVY RAINFALL.
AS MENTIONED BEFORE, DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGH RAIN
RATES WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS, IT IS POSSIBLE FOR
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF 3" TO 4" OF RAIN TO FALL OVER A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME, RESULTING LOCALIZED FLOODING EVEN DESPITE RECENT
SEVERE DRYNESS. AS SUCH, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE LOWER MID- ATLANTIC IN A MARGINAL
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, THE MOST VULNERABLE BEING URBAN, LOW-LYING AND FLOOD
PRONE AREAS. TO A LESSER CONCERN ARE THE RIVERS, BUT MULTIPLE
DAYS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN LEAD TO RISES ON THE LARGER
STREAMS TOO. EVEN IF THEY DO NOT FLOOD, THOSE NEAR RIVERS AND
STREAMS NEED TO BE ALERT FOR SUDDEN RISES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MAINLY DRY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY PROMOTING NORTHERLY FLOW AND PUSHING THE
DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF OUR REGION. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON
A DRY ENDING TO THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES DECREASING. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE
HIGH MAKES INROADS, TEMPERATURES COULD END UP BELOW NORMAL TO
KICK OFF JUNE.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FLIGHT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA, MOSTLY
LOW END VFR WITH POCKETS OF MVFR OR LOWER. SHOWERS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN A NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED FASHION FROM CHARLOTTE COUNTY VA TO NORTHWEST
NC, AND ARE PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD. SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS ARE PRODUCING HIGH RAIN RATES, LEADING TO QUICK
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. KDAN IS THE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO BE
IMPACTED BY THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
HOURS, BUT SHOULD WANE AFTER 06Z. CEILINGS HOWEVER, WILL TREND
LOWER ONCE AGAIN WITH LIGHT DRIZZLE/MIST AND FOG DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, DISSIPATING BY MID
MORNING TO MIDDAY. CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AFTER 18Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 10 KNOTS OR
LESS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE PROGRESSING INTO A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
HELP KEEP SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. AS WE PROGRESS INTO THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH AS DRIER HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. LOOK FOR LIMITED CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION, OR CHANCES PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION, AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG WILL POSSIBLE. LIKEWISE, SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY
CONTINUE OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE LOCATED.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AS/PM
AVIATION...AS/DS
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