545
FXUS61 KRNK 262335
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
735 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATE.
SOME PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED TO THE WEATHER GRIDS FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY, WITH FOCUS ON
PERIODIC SHOWER/STORM THREAT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND DRYING TREND
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THERE IS A RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, BUT PROBABILITY FOR
WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCE IS LOW DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE EASTERN PIEDMONT.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: THERE IS A FLASH FLOOD RISK TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THERE IS A FLASH FLOOD RISK TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY
AND TONIGHT, GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-64. AFTER YESTERDAY'S HEAVY
RAINFALL, WHERE SOME LOCATIONS PICKED UP 4-6", ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DESPITE THE DROUGHT,
RECENT RAINS HAVE BEGUN TO WET THE TOP LAYER OF SOIL, AND HAVE
CAUSED RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RISE BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS. THE
SYNOPTIC SETUP IS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED WITH POTENTIAL FOR LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS, THE STRONGER STORMS
CONTAINING HIGH RAIN RATES WITH ANY SORT OF TRAINING OF STORM
CELLS LEADING TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
VERY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IS PRESENT WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE,
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5-2.0". THIS IS DUE TO
TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING PULLED INTO THE AREA FROM THE BERMUDA
HIGH IN THE ATLANTIC AND A DISTURBANCE ALONG THE GULF COAST. ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE EFFICIENT RAINFALL WITH HIGH RAIN
RATES OF 3-4" PER HOUR AT TIMES. SHOULD THESE EFFICIENT STORMS
TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA, THEN RAIN TOTALS AGAIN COULD BE
SEVERAL INCHES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. IF TRAINING STORMS OCCUR OVER
THE SAME AREAS AS YESTERDAY, THEN FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE MUCH
MORE LIKELY. URBAN, LOW-LYING, AND FLOOD- PRONE AREAS WILL BE
THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING.
THE FLOODING RISK CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY AS A STATIONARY FRONT
REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE AREA, WITH AN AREA-WIDE MARGINAL RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CURRENTLY IN PLACE. SHOULD HEAVY RAINFALL
HAPPEN TODAY, THIS RISK COULD BE UPGRADED. THERE IS ALSO A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE EASTERN PIEDMONT, AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
MAIN THREAT IS FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CURRENT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE CAPE AND MODEST LAPSE RATES, WHICH
SUPPORT STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
BY THURSDAY, A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY PUSHES THE
STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF OUR AREA. WHILE THIS WILL ALLOW SKIES TO
CLEAR OUT SOME, RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER BRIEFLY FOR THURSDAY
BEFORE MORE SUSTAINABLE DRYING OCCURS FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA,
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM VFR TO PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR
OVER THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. WITH EXCESS MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION, PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AREAWIDE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO MVFR TO LIFR VSBYS DEVELOPING AT MOST TERMINALS BY 06
UTC THROUGH DAYBREAK AT 12 UTC. BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY, THE
SURFACE FOG SHOULD LIFT; HOWEVER, SOME LOW LEVEL CIGS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED AT NEARLY ALL TERMINALS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
PERIODIC MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING, AS WELL AS GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
BY THURSDAY, THE STALLED FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH MOVING IN. WHILE SHOWER/STORMS MAY
STILL BE POSSIBLE, THEY WILL BE ISOLATED AND PRIMARILY LIMITED
TO OUR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS, SUCH AS DAN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE REMAINDER OF THE
TERMINALS. VFR WILL BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, THOUGH FOG REMAINS
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JCB/PM
AVIATION...EB/VFJ
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