704
FXUS61 KRNK 091044
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
644 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEEPING WATCHFUL EYE ON MESOSCALE VORTEX EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER
SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMING ACROSS CENTRAL KY. IF THIS
FEATURE HOLDS TOGETHER, IT WILL LIKELY EFFECT PARTS OF OUR
WESTERN CWA LATE IN THE DAY IN THE FORM OF ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WPC HAS EXPANDED SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK INTO PARTS OF OUR WESTERN CWA TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1: AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
REPEATED RAINFALL WILL MAKE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING A BIGGER
CONCERN AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
2: WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MUCH OF
THIS WEEK. REPEATED RAINFALL WILL MAKE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
A BIGGER CONCERN AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST AND OFFSHORE TODAY. THIS WILL INDUCE MORE OF A
SOUTHEAST WIND TRAJECTORY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH WIND
FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO THE BLUE RIDGE YIELDING LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WITH UPSLOPE SHOWERS, DRIZZLE AND FOG ALONG THE PARKWAY.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST, PRODUCING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FAVORING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA ALONG WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE COMBINATION
OF THE TWO LIFTING MECHANISMS SHOULD LEAD TO BETTER THAN 50
PERCENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TODAY...AND LESS THAN 50 PERCENT FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.50 AND
2.00 INCHES, WHICH WILL SUPPORT RAIN EFFICIENT SHOWERS, BUT CAPE
SHOULD BE HELD UNDER 1000 J/KG DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD
COVER. THE CLOUDS WILL ALSO ACT TO MUTE THE TEMPERATURES, SO
UNLESS WE BREAK OUT AND GET SOME SUN TO BOOST THE CAPE, THINK
NOTHING MORE THAN GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH MARGINAL
THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
AS WE TRANSITION INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, TREND IS FOR LESS
CLOUD COVER YIELDING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER CAPE. IN
TURN THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A CATEGORY INCREASE IN OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLASH FLOOD RISK.
THE MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK ALLOWING FOR MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP CONVECTION. A BREAK IN THE PATTERN MAY
TAKE PLACE THIS WEEKEND PER FORECAST OF A MODEST COLD FRONT
PASSAGE, BUT THEN THE PATTERN COMES RIGHT BACK FOR THE FOLLOWING
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL COUPLE WITH DOWNSLOPE ADIABATIC WARMING LEE OF THE
BLUE RIDGE TO PRODUCE SOME REALLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT, INCLUDING ROANOKE WHERE DAYTIME HIGHS
MAY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S. COMBINED WITH THE HIGH
DEWPTS/HUMIDITY THE RESULTANT HEAT INDICES COULD FLIRT WITH THE
TRIPLE DIGITS. AS SUCH IT'S TIME TO START THINKING HEAT SAFETY;
A GIANT SWIMMING POOL COMES TO MIND AS AN INITIAL STRATEGY.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF UPSLOPE LOW
CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH 16Z/NOON TODAY.
LOCAL IFR IS EXPECTED VCNTY OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH POTENTIAL FOR
PARTIAL RIDGE OBSCURATIONS. AWAY FROM THE RIDGE, EITHER SIDE,
CONDITIONS WILL BE BETTER, FAVORING MVFR AS THE OVERALL
CATEGORY. IN GENERAL EXPECTING LOW CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING
BEFORE IMPROVING FOR THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
SHOWERY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTMAX
(MCV) THAT IS CROSSING CENTRAL KY. NEED TO WATCH THIS FEATURE
FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES FROM KY
INTO FAR WESTERN VA AND WV.
WIND FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT, FAVORING HIGHER CLOUD
BASES. STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT IN ADDITION TO ANY REMNANTS OF THE DAYTIME MCV AND
PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
PATTERN STAYS FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH LINGERING FRONT INTO MIDWEEK.
ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY BUT
ORGANIZATION LACKING. SO OVERALL LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING OUTSIDE OF STORMS WITH
POTENTIAL AT TIMES FOR SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE AT NIGHT WITH
FOG. THIS PATTERN MAY STAY THIS WAY INTO SATURDAY AS HEAT AND
HUMIDITY INCREASE.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...PM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page