921
FXUS61 KRNK 091909
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
309 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAVIEST RAIN/STORMS STAY ALONG THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON, SHOWERS INCREASE AND SPREAD INTO MORE OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING.
TEMPERATURES AND THUS HEAT INDEX VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT HIGH HUMIDITY AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE DANGEROUS.
KEY MESSAGES
1: AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
REPEATED RAINFALL WILL MAKE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING A BIGGER
CONCERN AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
2: WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MUCH OF
THIS WEEK. REPEATED RAINFALL WILL MAKE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
A BIGGER CONCERN AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAD NOW SHIFTED OFFSHORE AS A SIGNIFICANT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVED ACROSS THE OH/TN TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL
STALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT, WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING THROUGH IT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT IS KICKED EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SEVERAL ROUND OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FIRST ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WAS NOW MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON, AND WILL IMPACT AREAS
MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BEFORE DARK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SPREAD INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SECOND MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ARRIVES.
INSTABILITY HAS BEEN HELD DOWN TODAY IN OUR AREA THANKS TO
RESIDUAL HIGH PRESSURE AND MOIST, DRIZZLY SE UPSLOPE FLOW. A
STRONG MVC ASSOCIATED WITH TODAY'S CONVECTION WAS DIVING
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH KY AND TN AND SHOULD THANKFULLY HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR AREA. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, DRIER SW
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUNNY SKIES AT TIMES AND CONTRIBUTE TO
HIGHER CAPE VALUES. THIS IN TURN SHOULD LEAD TO A CATEGORY
INCREASE IN OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOOD RISK. THE
MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY.
DUE TO REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAIN, WARM CLOUD DEPTHS TO 10 KFT,
AND PWATS SURGING CLOSE TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES, FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE THE GREATEST WEATHER THREAT AS THE WEEK GOES ON, WITH
DAMAGING WINDS A DISTANT SECOND.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.
WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL COUPLE WITH DOWNSLOPE ADIABATIC WARMING LEE OF THE
BLUE RIDGE TO PRODUCE SOME REALLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT, INCLUDING ROANOKE WHERE DAYTIME HIGHS
MAY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S. COMBINED WITH THE HIGH
DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY THE RESULTANT HEAT INDICES COULD FLIRT WITH
THE TRIPLE DIGITS. AS SUCH IT'S TIME TO START THINKING HEAT
SAFETY; A GIANT SWIMMING POOL COMES TO MIND AS AN INITIAL
STRATEGY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FIRST ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WAS NOW MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON, AND WILL IMPACT AREAS
MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BEFORE DARK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SPREAD INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SECOND MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ARRIVES. MODELS LOOK A LITTLE LESS BULLISH THAN THE
DID EARLIER FOR TONIGHT'S PREVAILING CONDITIONS, BUT STILL
WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED IN SHOWERS, STORMS, AND FOG. WINDS
LOOK RELATIVELY LIGHT EXCEPT IN THUNDERSTORMS, WITH PREVAILING
DIRECTIONS RANGING FROM W TO SW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
PATTERN STAYS FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH LINGERING FRONT INTO MIDWEEK.
ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY BUT
ORGANIZATION LACKING. SO OVERALL LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING OUTSIDE OF STORMS WITH
POTENTIAL AT TIMES FOR SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE AT NIGHT WITH
FOG. THIS PATTERN MAY STAY THIS WAY INTO SATURDAY AS HEAT AND
HUMIDITY INCREASE.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM/SH
AVIATION...PM/SH
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