085
FXUS61 KRNK 101812
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
212 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO MUTE TEMPERATURES. TRIMMED HIGHS 2 TO 5
DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL BLENDS (NBM)...MORE IN LINE WITH
MET/MAV MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS (MOS).
KEY MESSAGES
1: STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
2: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
SUBSEQUENT UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TRAVERSE EAST ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY,
ALLOWING A LEESIDE TROUGH TO FORM ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS
COMBINATION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO FORM EACH
AFTERNOON WITH THE AID OF DIURNAL HEATING. A BERMUDA HIGH IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO FEED A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
WARM, MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA, ESPECIALLY BY TOMORROW, FURTHER
ENHANCING STORM DEVELOPMENT.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE
PIEDMONT AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST. ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE, IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
SMALL HAIL. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE, GENERALLY
ANYWHERE SOUTH OF I-64, WHICH COULD CAUSE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IN
FLOOD-PRONE AREAS. HIGH RAIN RATES OF 2-4"+ PER HOUR, AND ANY STORMS
THAT MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS REPEATEDLY WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY
CAUSE OF FLOODING IN VULNERABLE LOCATIONS. SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE OUT
BY THIS EVENING, WITH MOSTLY QUIETER WEATHER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
ON THURSDAY, MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS NEARING 2.00". THIS WILL ALLOW STORMS TO PRODUCE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL AND HIGH RAIN RATES, WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE,
MAINLY CONFINED TO WEST VIRGINIA. SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE A
THREAT AGAIN TOMORROW, AS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND CLEARER SKIES WILL
INCREASE INSTABILITY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH STORM COVERAGE
FOR TOMORROW, AS CAM MODELS HAVE A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES.
HOWEVER, VIRTUALLY ALL MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED TO EFFECTIVELY CAPTURE
STORM COMPLEXES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ANY STORMS THAT DO
FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
ENTIRE AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK, WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH OF US-460.
FRIDAY WILL SEE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON, WITH THE SAME AREAS IN A MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AS WAS THE CASE ON THURSDAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL WILL AGAIN BE THE THREATS. ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE ONE
DIFFERENCE FOR FRIDAY WILL BE THAT THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST AND A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA, WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP, LEADING TO MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
WINDS LOOK TO TURN WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, THAT LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
WARM WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING WINDS LEADING TO ADIABATIC WARMING
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE PIEDMONT.
DAYTIME HIGHS EACH DAY LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S, WITH
SOME LOCALIZED AREAS POSSIBLY REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES ACROSS
THE REGION WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100-105 RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THESE HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE JUST BELOW HEAT HEADLINES FOR THE PIEDMONT OF
VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA; NEVERTHELESS, FOLKS SHOULD STILL
CONSIDER TAKING FREQUENT BREAKS INDOORS OR THE SHADE, AS WELL AS
DRINKING PLENTY OF FLUIDS IF WORKING OUTDOORS DURING THE PEAK
OF THE DAYTIME HEAT.
WHILE A FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES DO NOT
LOOK TO DECREASE ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY; HOWEVER, DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH THAT HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL BE TIED CLOSER TO ACTUAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA.
THE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL SCOUR THE MUGGINESS ACROSS THE AREA,
WHICH WILL INADVERTENTLY PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MAKE THERE WAY
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR
CIGS/VSBYS, AND GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE
VICINITY OF TERMINALS. MUCH OF THESE SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY PASSED
MOST TERMINALS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH LYH AND DAN THE ONLY TWO
THAT ARE CURRENTLY OR WILL BE IMPACTED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AT AROUND
5-10 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THESE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT BCB
AND LWB DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. WITH RAIN
TODAY, THE WET SURFACE GROUND LAYER WILL LIKELY CREATE SOME
PATCHY FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS ESPECIALLY. THIS RIVER VALLEY FOG
MAY LEAD TO SOME BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS TOWARDS THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
A SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL
LEADING TO STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WHEN THEY OCCUR. THIS MAY LEAD
TO SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS, AS WELL AS
STRONG AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT FOG AND STRATUS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB/JCB
AVIATION...EB/PM
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