717
FXUS61 KRNK 111125
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
725 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TWO HOT AND HUMID DAYS ONTAP. NOT CONFIDENT FOR MUCH RAIN TODAY
DUE TO CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT, BUT HIGHER PROBABILITY FRIDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1: ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY.
MAIN THREATS WOULD BE WIND DAMAGE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
2: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY, WARMEST
READINGS TODAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY.
MAIN THREATS WOULD BE WIND DAMAGE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
THIS MORNING: NOTHING SIGNIFICANT BEFORE NOON. MAY SEE SOME
MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
WHERE WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY POP
OFF A FEW SHOWERS AROUND DAYBREAK.
THIS AFTERNOON: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ALONG
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460 AND A MARGINAL RISK SOUTH OF 460 INTO
THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA.
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON, CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE. THE CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE
POTENTIAL ENERGY (CAPE) IS FORECAST NEAR 2500 J/KG ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA. CHALLENGE WILL BE TO OVERCOME THE DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY
WIND AND BREAKING THE CAP. MID LEVEL WARMING IS FORECAST WITH
700 MB TEMPS INCREASING TO ABOUT 11 DEG C. THIS CAPPING
INVERSION AND DOWNSLOPE WEST WIND WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME IN
ORDER TO RELEASE THE CAPE. THE FORECAST BASICALLY HINGES ON
GETTING ENOUGH LIFT TO PUNCH THROUGH THE CAP, THE DIFFERENCE
BEING A HOT/DRY FORECAST OR "SEVERE CLEAR" VS. ACTUALLY
DEVELOPING A HEALTHY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
WATCHING TWO AREAS WHERE ENOUGH LIFT MAY OVERCOME THE CAP...
THE OBVIOUS BEING A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MCS
PASSING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...THE ENERGY FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST OR DOWNSTREAM INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. THE OUTFLOW
FROM THIS MCS WOULD BE THE THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR NEW
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AS IT PROPAGATES EAST INTO WV/PA THIS
AFTERNOON...OUR NORTHERN CWA FALLING UNDER ITS INFLUENCE.
ANOTHER AREA TO WATCH WILL BE THE LEE TROUGH, EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS WHERE THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND ENCOUNTERS A MORE
SOUTHERLY INDUCED AND MORE MOIST WIND FIELD OVER THE PIEDMONT.
THIS FEATURE MAY ALSO PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER
ISOLATED STORMS THERE, FAVORING OUR NC/VA PIEDMONT COUNTIES MORE
SO TOWARD EVENING...5PM-10PM TIME FRAME.
THOUGH SHEAR WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK, MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS COINCIDING WITH AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL ALSO SUPPORT MODERATE TO STRONG DOWNDRAFTS
FROM DCAPE THAT IS FORECAST TO BE AOA 1000 J/KG...INGREDIENTS
FOR DAMAGING WIND. WEAK SHEAR ALSO SUGGESTS SLOWER STORM CELL
MOVING AND WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.50 THE STORMS WILL ALSO BE RAIN
EFFICIENT AND CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
FRIDAY: ANTICIPATING BETTER FORCING TO GO ALONG WITH ANOTHER
DAY OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. A COLD FRONT WILL ACT AS
THE LIFTING MECHANISM FOR STORMS FRIDAY, ARRIVING LATE IN THE
DAY AND DURING A TIME OF PEAK HEATING. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ADVANCE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND MERGE WITH THE LEE TROUGH EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE
ORGANIZED WITH A MIX OF MULTICELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS WITH THE
PRIMARY HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY, WARMEST READINGS TODAY AND FRIDAY.
WEST WINDS TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO ADIABATIC WARMING, A
PROCESS WHICH COMPRESSES AND WARMS THE AIR AS IT PASSES OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL BE IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING WARM
AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. 85H TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST NEAR 21 DEG C
BOTH DAYS. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER, THIS SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO BECOME QUITE WARM EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TODAY AND POSSIBLY THE UPPER 90S FRIDAY.
READINGS (ALTHOUGH NOT AS OPPRESSIVE) ARE EXPECTED TO REACH WELL
INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR 90 IN THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY.
THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100-105 RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT ON TODAY AND FRIDAY. THESE HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE JUST
BELOW HEAT HEADLINES FOR THE PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA; NEVERTHELESS, FOLKS SHOULD STILL CONSIDER TAKING
FREQUENT BREAKS, MOVING INDOORS OR THE SHADE, AS WELL AS
DRINKING PLENTY OF FLUIDS.
WHILE A FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES DO NOT
LOOK TO DECREASE THAT MUCH ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY; HOWEVER,
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH THAT
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE CLOSER TO ACTUAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
AREA. THE LOWER DEWPOINTS SHOULD MAKE IT FEEL LESS MUGGY, WHICH
WILL IN TURN PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
PATCHY FOG THROUGH SUNRISE OTHERWISE VFR. THERE MAY BE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
THIS MORNING BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
WINDWARD SLOPE.
LOOKING AT A NEAR FULL DAY OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE 90S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO
OCCUR MAINLY ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF ROANOKE/LYNCHBURG. THAT
SAID, ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTAIN STRONG
UPDRAFTS AND DOWNDRAFTS DUE TO THE MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY THAT IS BEING FORECAST (CAPES OF 2500 J/KG).
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF DRYING
SATURDAY BEFORE GOING BACK INTO A GENERAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN
WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME COMMON DURING
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AT NIGHT WITH
PATCHY FOG.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...PM
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