679
FXUS61 KRNK 111718
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
118 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TWO HOT AND HUMID DAYS ON TAP. NOT CONFIDENT FOR MUCH RAIN
TODAY DUE TO CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT, BUT HIGHER PROBABILITY
FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY AREAWIDE.
KEY MESSAGES
1: ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, WITH
A BETTER LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE STORMS ON FRIDAY.
2: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY, WARMEST READINGS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY.
MAIN THREATS WOULD BE WIND DAMAGE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
A FEW ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
THANKS TO GENTLE UPSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW. ASIDE FROM BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, THESE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
THE BIGGER CONCERN IS THE CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA, WITH A SLIGHT RISK GENERALLY NORTH OF US-460.
INSTABILITY WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH TODAY, DUE TO THE LACK OF CLOUD
COVER AND INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND A
LEESIDE TROUGH IS IN PLACE TO HELP CREATE LIFT, ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PART OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING. DESPITE THESE FACTORS, STORM COVERAGE
TODAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. ALTHOUGH
CAPE WILL BE AT LEAST 2000 J/KG, ADDITIONAL FORCING WILL BE NEEDED
TO BREAK THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION ALOFT, AKA THE CAP, DUE TO THE
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS. THIS ADDITIONAL FORCING WILL OCCUR WHEN
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH LATER TODAY. ANY STORMS THAT DO
BREAK THROUGH THE CAP WILL EASILY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, DUE TO DCAPE VALUES WELL OVER 1000 J/KG. LARGE
HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT WILL BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. STORMS
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT. WITH ALL
OF THE ABOVE FACTORS MENTIONED, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE
ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA.
FOR FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST, WHICH
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN EQUALLY
HIGH TO TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S/90S. DUE TO THESE
FACTORS, MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING MID-AFTERNOON, WHICH IS WHY
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE MAIN THREAT, AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER
IN LIKELIHOOD TOMORROW. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS.
BOTH LATER TODAY AND FOR FRIDAY, ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN
A CONCERN. MOST OF THE AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT, WHILE THE ENTIRE AREA IS INCLUDED FOR
FRIDAY. RAIN RATES OF 2-4" PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST
STORMS, AND WITH THE STEERING FLOW/SHEAR NOT BEING VERY STRONG,
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW MOVING STORMS TO DUMP HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
A SMALL AREA. ANY STORMS THAT REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS COULD ALSO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING,
FLOOD-PRONE, OR URBAN AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY, WARMEST READINGS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.
850MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO SURGE TO AROUND 20-24 DEGREES
CELSIUS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS HIGH TYPICALLY TRANSLATE TO
UPPER 90 TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE WITH ADIABATIC WARMING. WITH STORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IF TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT THE NBM IS CURRENTLY FORECASTING ACROSS
THE AREA; THEREFORE, SOME CONSSHORT WAS BLENDED IN TO LOWER
HIGH TEMPERATURES REGION WIDE. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S
ARE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE PIEDMONTS OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA ON FRIDAY, WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FORECAST FOR MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS. ONE CAVEAT THAT WAS MENTIONED ABOVE IS THAT IF STORM
ACTIVITY PUSHES INTO THE REGION IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON, HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY MIGHT BE CAPPED AT WHATEVER STATIONS
END UP REACHING PRIOR TO STORM ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO THE REGION.
WHILE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REACH THE HOTTEST OF THE YEAR THUS
FAR, DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS WILL LEAD TO
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW 100S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, AND UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. WHILE THE AIR WILL
FEEL MUGGY, DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING NEEDED TO REACH THESE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 WILL LIKELY MIX
DOWN SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT, AND INEVITABLY LOWER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LIKELY PREVENT HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM CLIMBING TO HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA LEVELS; HOWEVER, FOLKS SHOULD STILL CONTINUE
TO TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS FROM THE OUTDOOR HEAT, AND DRINK PLENTY
OF FLUIDS. SENSITIVE GROUPS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN INDOORS DURING
THE PEAK HEAT OF THE DAY.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF AS
DEWPOINTS ARE LOWERED AREAWIDE, WHICH WILL REDUCE THE MUGGY
FEELING OUTSIDE; HOWEVER, HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE LOW TO MID
90S IN THE PIEDMONT, AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. MID TO
UPPER 90S LOOK TO RETURN IN THE PIEDMONT, AND MID TO UPPER 80S
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO
MAINLY IMPACT PIEDMONT TERMINALS ROA, LYH, AND DAN; HOWEVER,
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE AT
BLF, BCB, AND LWB. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE
TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, AND MVFR TO IFR
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS. PROB 30 GROUPS WERE
MAINTAINED DUE TO THE LOW LIKELIHOOD, BUT HIGH END IMPACT
POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TODAY. OUTSIDE OF THESE STORMS, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE PREDOMINANTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME REDUCED VSBYS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT
BCB AND LWB DUE TO RIVER VALLEY FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING;
HOWEVER, THESE RESTRICTIONS WILL BE BRIEF AND SHOULD QUICKLY
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE IF THEY DO DEVELOP.
BEYOND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN OUT OF THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 5-10 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20
KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA STARTING AROUND 15 UTC.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF DRYING
SATURDAY BEFORE GOING BACK INTO A GENERAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN
WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME COMMON DURING
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AT NIGHT WITH
PATCHY FOG.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB/JCB
AVIATION...EB/PM
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